Football · Chile Primera Division Women · 25/07, 23:00

Prediction: Universidad Catolica (W) vs Palestino (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Universidad Catolica (W)2.61

Palestino (W)0.65

1X2

79% 14% 7%

Universidad Catolica (W) Draw Palestino (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Universidad Catolica (W) 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWLWW

Palestino (W) 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLWWDLLLLL

Head-to-head

Universidad Catolica (W) 5–1–0 Palestino (W) (6 last)

Palestino (W)0-1Universidad Catolica (W)
Universidad Catolica (W)1-0Palestino (W)
Palestino (W)2-4Universidad Catolica (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universidad Catolica (W) 1609 · Palestino (W) 1463

	Universidad Catolica (W)	Draw	Palestino (W)
Our model	79%	15%	6%
Market	79%	14%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica (W) (rating 1609 vs 1463).
H2H favours Universidad Catolica (W): 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universidad Catolica (W)	Palestino (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 0.5	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/43/14%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.1	2.1 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.14

X6.50

213.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)2.00

2 (+2.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.14	Bet365 1.14
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:28 +6’	1.14	6.50	13.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Catolica (W) 5–1–0 Palestino (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Chile Primera Division Women	Palestino (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Universidad Catolica (W)
09/08/25 Chile Primera Division Women	Universidad Catolica (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Palestino (W)
08/03/25 Chile Primera Division Women	Palestino (W)	2-4 HT 2-0	Universidad Catolica (W)
23/06/24 Chile Primera Division Women	Universidad Catolica (W)	5-1 HT 3-1	Palestino (W)
09/03/24 Chile Primera Division Women	Palestino (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Universidad Catolica (W)
03/09/23 Chile Primera Division Women	Universidad Catolica (W)	4-0 HT 3-0	Palestino (W)

Standings · Chile Primera Division Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo (W)	16	15	1	0	65	2	46
2	Universidad de Chile (W)	16	13	2	1	50	12	41
3	Universidad Catolica (W)	16	13	0	3	34	10	39
4	Coquimbo Unido (W)	16	8	4	4	22	11	28
5	Union Espanola (W)	15	7	4	4	17	13	25
6	Huachipato (W)	15	6	3	6	17	26	21
7	Palestino (W)	15	5	4	6	22	23	19
8	Deportes Iquique (W)	15	5	2	8	17	22	17
9	Universidad de Concepcion (W)	16	4	3	9	12	29	15
10	Magallanes (W)	16	4	2	10	13	33	14
11	Santiago Wanderers (W)	16	3	4	9	11	24	13
12	Deportes Temuco (W)	16	2	1	13	13	46	7
13	Deportes Recoleta (W)	16	2	0	14	16	58	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universidad Catolica (W)	Palestino (W)
Santiago Wanderers (W)	2-0 W	0-0 D
Colo Colo (W)	1-2 L	0-4 L
Universidad de Concepcion (W)	4-0 W	1-1 D
Deportes Temuco (W)	7-1 W	2-3 L
Deportes Recoleta (W)	3-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad Catolica (W) (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universidad Catolica (W)

WWWWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/07	Coquimbo Unido (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-1	3-2	14	3	W
08/07	Santiago Wanderers (W) Chile Primera Division Women	–	2-0	–	–	W
04/07	Colo Colo (W) Chile Primera Division Women	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
27/06	Universidad de Concepcion (W) Chile Primera Division Women	3-0	4-0	8	2	W
20/06	Palestino (W) Chile Primera Division Women	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
14/06	Deportes Temuco (W) Chile Primera Division Women	4-0	7-1	10	2	W
30/05	Coquimbo Unido (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
24/05	Magallanes (W) Chile Primera Division Women	–	3-0	–	–	W
17/05	Deportes Iquique (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-0	1-0	0	5	W
13/05	Deportes Recoleta (W) Chile Primera Division Women	–	3-0	–	–	W

Palestino (W)

DLWWDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Colo Colo (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-0	0-4	2	0	L
08/07	Deportes Recoleta (W) Chile Primera Division Women	1-0	1-2	7	4	L
03/07	Deportes Temuco (W) Chile Primera Division Women	1-3	2-3	7	2	L
20/06	Universidad Catolica (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
13/06	Universidad de Chile (W) Chile Primera Division Women	1-0	1-3	0	7	L
31/05	Universidad de Concepcion (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
24/05	Deportes Temuco (W) Chile Primera Division Women	3-0	5-0	3	3	W
17/05	Union Espanola (W) Chile Primera Division Women	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
13/05	Colo Colo (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-2	0-4	0	0	L
10/05	Santiago Wanderers (W) Chile Primera Division Women	0-0	0-0	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universidad Catolica (W) vs Palestino (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad Catolica (W) win (79%). Probabilities: Universidad Catolica (W) 79%, draw 14%, Palestino (W) 7%.

How many goals are expected in Universidad Catolica (W) vs Palestino (W)?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Universidad Catolica (W) 2.61 · Palestino (W) 0.65), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Universidad Catolica (W) vs Palestino (W)?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.