Football · Republic of Ireland First Division · 18/09, 20:45

Prediction: Finn Harps vs Longford Town

Team pages: Finn Harps · Longford Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Finn Harps1.58

Longford Town1.64

1X2

36% 25% 38%

Finn Harps Draw Longford Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Finn Harps 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLLW

Longford Town 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLWDLL

Head-to-head

Finn Harps 1–4–1 Longford Town (6 last)

Longford Town5-0Finn Harps
Finn Harps2-2Longford Town
Longford Town0-1Finn Harps
Longford Town1-1Finn Harps
Finn Harps0-0Longford Town
Longford Town0-0Finn Harps

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Longford Town (rating 1424 vs 1487).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Finn Harps	Longford Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.6	2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.5	2.5 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:12

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.85 → 3.90▲	Pinn 3.90
X	3.73 → 3.78▲	Pinn 3.78
2	1.81 → 1.82▲	Pinn 1.82

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:06 +4’	3.85	3.73	1.81
22:12 +60’	3.90▲	3.78▲	1.82▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Finn Harps 1–4–1 Longford Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/08/26 Republic of Ireland First Division	Longford Town	5-0 HT 1-0	Finn Harps
22/05/26 Republic of Ireland First Division	Finn Harps	2-2 HT 0-0	Longford Town
28/03/26 Republic of Ireland First Division	Longford Town	0-1 HT 0-1	Finn Harps
05/09/25 Republic of Ireland First Division	Longford Town	1-1 HT 0-0	Finn Harps
04/07/25 Republic of Ireland First Division	Finn Harps	0-0 HT 0-0	Longford Town
17/05/25 Republic of Ireland First Division	Longford Town	0-0 HT 0-0	Finn Harps

Standings · Republic of Ireland First Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cork City	31	21	5	5	64	29	68
2	UCD	31	14	7	10	55	40	49
3	Bray Wanderers	31	13	8	10	59	44	47
4	Cobh Ramblers	31	13	6	12	38	43	45
5	Kerry FC	31	11	9	11	39	36	42
6	Longford Town	31	11	8	12	41	41	41
7	Athlone Town	31	11	8	12	33	36	41
8	Wexford FC	31	10	7	14	34	46	37
9	Treaty United FC	31	8	9	14	31	45	33
10	Finn Harps	31	6	7	18	29	63	25

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Finn Harps	Longford Town
Wexford FC	3-1 W	1-2 L
Athlone Town	0-1 L	1-2 L
UCD	4-5 L	2-1 W
Cobh Ramblers	1-3 L	2-2 D
Bray Wanderers	0-5 L	4-2 W
Cork City	0-3 L	4-3 W
Kerry FC	1-2 L	0-1 L
Treaty United FC	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 7 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Longford Town (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Finn Harps

WLLLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division	0-0	3-1	3	2	W
04/09	Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
28/08	UCD Republic of Ireland First Division	2-1	4-5	1	5	L
21/08	Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division	0-3	1-3	4	1	L
07/08	Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division	0-2	0-5	0	4	L
03/08	Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division	0-1	0-5	3	5	L
31/07	Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division	0-0	0-3	2	5	L
24/07	Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division	1-2	1-2	4	2	L
10/07	Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
03/07	Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division	0-0	1-0	2	9	W

Longford Town

WWLWWLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division	0-2	0-2	8	4	L
05/09	Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
28/08	Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division	2-0	2-2	3	5	D
22/08	Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division	3-1	4-2	4	6	W
07/08	Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division	0-2	1-2	6	7	L
03/08	Finn Harps Republic of Ireland First Division	1-0	5-0	5	5	W
31/07	Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
25/07	Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
10/07	Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division	2-1	4-3	8	2	W
04/07	UCD Republic of Ireland First Division	0-1	2-1	1	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Finn Harps vs Longford Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Longford Town win (38%). Probabilities: Finn Harps 36%, draw 25%, Longford Town 38%.

How many goals are expected in Finn Harps vs Longford Town?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Finn Harps 1.58 · Longford Town 1.64), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Longford Town?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.