Football · Finland Kakkonen Group C · 12/07, 17:30
Prediction: Narpes Kraft vs VPS-J
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.5Total
Narpes Kraft2.26
VPS-J2.24
1X2
Narpes Kraft
Draw
VPS-J
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 64%
Most likely score
2-2
Recent form · 10 last
Narpes Kraft
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
VPS-J
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Narpes Kraft
1–2–2
VPS-J
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Narpes Kraft 1503 · VPS-J 1517
| Narpes Kraft | Draw | VPS-J | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 21% | 39% |
| Market | 40% | 21% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.5 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours VPS-J: 2-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Narpes Kraft | VPS-J | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.1 / 2.4 | 2.4 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 1.1 | 1 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.4 | 4 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.3 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Narpes Kraft 1–2–2 VPS-J
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Finland Kakkonen Group C | VPS-J | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Narpes Kraft |
| 16/08/25 Finland Kakkonen Group C | VPS-J | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Narpes Kraft |
| 12/06/25 Finland Kakkonen Group C | Narpes Kraft | 2-2 HT 1-1 | VPS-J |
| 05/04/25 Europe Friendlies | VPS-J | 7-0 HT 3-0 | Narpes Kraft |
| 06/07/20 Finland Kolmonen | VPS-J | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Narpes Kraft |
Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group C · Kakkonen 2026, Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBK | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 23 | 21 |
| 2 | FF Jaro II | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 31 | 21 |
| 3 | Huima/Urho | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 23 | 17 |
| 4 | Narpes Kraft | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 36 | 25 | 16 |
| 5 | VPS-J | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 28 | 21 | 16 |
| 6 | JBK | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 16 |
| 7 | TP-47 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 21 | 16 |
| 8 | SJK Akatemia II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 22 | 16 |
| 9 | FC Vaajakoski | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 28 | 11 |
| 10 | JS Hercules | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 30 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Narpes Kraft | VPS-J |
|---|---|---|
| JBK | 2-4 L | 2-1 W |
| FF Jaro II | 8-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Huima/Urho | 1-3 L | 3-1 W |
| SJK Akatemia II | 4-0 W | 2-3 L |
| TP-47 | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| JS Hercules | 2-1 W | 5-1 W |
| GBK | 6-2 W | 3-4 L |
| FC Vaajakoski | 5-4 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 3 L | 4 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Narpes Kraft
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | JBK Finland Kakkonen Group C |
0-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 04/07 | FF Jaro II Finland Kakkonen Group C |
4-0 | 8-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 14/06 | Huima/Urho Finland Kakkonen Group C |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C |
3-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | TP-47 Finland Kakkonen Group C |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 23/05 | JS Hercules Finland Kakkonen Group C |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | GBK Finland Kakkonen Group C |
3-1 | 6-2 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | FC Vaajakoski Finland Kakkonen Group C |
2-3 | 5-4 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | VPS-J Finland Kakkonen Group C |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 29/04 | Tampere Utd Finland Cup |
0-3 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
VPS-J
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Huima/Urho Finland Kakkonen Group C |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | TP-47 Finland Kakkonen Group C |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | GBK Finland Kakkonen Group C |
1-1 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 05/06 | JS Hercules Finland Kakkonen Group C |
1-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | FC Vaajakoski Finland Kakkonen Group C |
2-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 21/05 | FF Jaro II Finland Kakkonen Group C |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 18/05 | SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 08/05 | JBK Finland Kakkonen Group C |
1-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Narpes Kraft Finland Kakkonen Group C |
0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 28/04 | SJK Finland Cup |
1-4 | 1-6 | 2 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Narpes Kraft vs VPS-J?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Narpes Kraft win (40%). Probabilities: Narpes Kraft 40%, draw 21%, VPS-J 39%.
How many goals are expected in Narpes Kraft vs VPS-J?
The model expects 4.5 goals (Narpes Kraft 2.26 · VPS-J 2.24), with a 52% chance of over 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Narpes Kraft vs VPS-J?
The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.