Football · South Korea K3 League · 31/10, 06:00
Prediction: Yeoju vs Gyeongju HNP
Team pages: Yeoju · Gyeongju HNP
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.24Total
Yeoju0.84
Gyeongju HNP1.39
1X2
Yeoju
Draw
Gyeongju HNP
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Yeoju
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Gyeongju HNP
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Yeoju
3–1–1
Gyeongju HNP
(5 last)
- Gyeongju HNP0-0Yeoju
- Gyeongju HNP0-1Yeoju
- Yeoju1-0Gyeongju HNP
- Gyeongju HNP0-2Yeoju
- Yeoju1-5Gyeongju HNP
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yeoju 1490 · Gyeongju HNP 1553
| Yeoju | Draw | Gyeongju HNP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 30% | 49% |
| Market | 24% | 25% | 51% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gyeongju HNP (rating 1490 vs 1553).
- H2H favours Yeoju: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Yeoju | Gyeongju HNP | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 2.9 | 2.1 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Yeoju 3–1–1 Gyeongju HNP
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 South Korea K3 League | Gyeongju HNP | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Yeoju |
| 01/11/25 South Korea K3 League | Gyeongju HNP | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Yeoju |
| 22/06/25 South Korea K3 League | Yeoju | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Gyeongju HNP |
| 28/07/24 South Korea K3 League | Gyeongju HNP | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Yeoju |
| 14/04/24 South Korea K3 League | Yeoju | 1-5 HT 1-2 | Gyeongju HNP |
Standings · South Korea K3 League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siheung City AC | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 22 | 55 |
| 2 | Pocheon Citizen FC | 24 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 41 | 20 | 49 |
| 3 | Daejeon Korail | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 33 | 19 | 41 |
| 4 | Busan Trans Corp | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 42 | 30 | 40 |
| 5 | Gyeongju HNP | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 36 | 32 | 36 |
| 6 | Dangjin Citizen FC | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 47 | 39 | 34 |
| 7 | Chuncheon FC | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 37 | 33 |
| 8 | Gangneung City | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 23 | 33 | 30 |
| 9 | Changwon City | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 31 | 29 |
| 10 | Ulsan Citizen FC | 24 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 25 | 28 | 28 |
| 11 | Yeoju | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 31 | 28 |
| 12 | Mokpo City | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 37 | 25 |
| 13 | Yangpyeong FC | 24 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 46 | 20 |
| 14 | Jeonbuk Motors II | 24 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 25 | 54 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Yeoju | Gyeongju HNP |
|---|---|---|
| Busan Trans Corp | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Pocheon Citizen FC | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Mokpo City | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Dangjin Citizen FC | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Gangneung City | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Ulsan Citizen FC | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Changwon City | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Yangpyeong FC | 2-1 W | 3-3 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 4 L | 4 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Gyeongju HNP (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yeoju
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 03/10 | Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Mokpo City South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 22/08 | Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Gangneung City South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 10/07 | Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 27/06 | Changwon City South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 20/06 | Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
Gyeongju HNP
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Mokpo City South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 04/10 | Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 20/09 | Changwon City South Korea K3 League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Gangneung City South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League |
2-0 | 3-3 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 25/07 | Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 11/07 | Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 28/06 | Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yeoju vs Gyeongju HNP?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Gyeongju HNP win (50%). Probabilities: Yeoju 23%, draw 27%, Gyeongju HNP 50%.
How many goals are expected in Yeoju vs Gyeongju HNP?
The model expects 2.24 goals (Yeoju 0.84 · Gyeongju HNP 1.39), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Yeoju vs Gyeongju HNP?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.