Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 19/07, 11:30

Prediction: JK Trans Narva II vs Parnu JK Vaprus II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.58Total

JK Trans Narva II2.81

Parnu JK Vaprus II1.77

1X2

59% 19% 23%

JK Trans Narva II Draw Parnu JK Vaprus II

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

JK Trans Narva II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Parnu JK Vaprus II 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

JK Trans Narva II 1–1 Parnu JK Vaprus II (2 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Trans Narva II 1519 · Parnu JK Vaprus II 1530

	JK Trans Narva II	Draw	Parnu JK Vaprus II
Our model	59%	18%	23%
Market	59%	19%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 4.58 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Trans Narva II	Parnu JK Vaprus II
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.9	3.3 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	1.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 8.4	1.8 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.4	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.75

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.88

Under 4.51.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 4.65

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
03:42 +34’	1.53	4.75	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Trans Narva II 1–0–1 Parnu JK Vaprus II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Parnu JK Vaprus II	4-0 HT 4-0	JK Trans Narva II
22/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Trans Narva II	5-0 HT 3-0	Parnu JK Vaprus II

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JK Tammeka Tartu II	19	12	2	5	54	37	38
2	JK Viljandi Tulevik	19	11	1	7	55	39	34
3	Johvi FC Phoenix	19	11	1	7	49	47	34
4	JK Trans Narva II	18	10	2	6	44	28	32
5	Parnu JK Vaprus II	19	10	2	7	56	42	32
6	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	19	10	2	7	48	34	32
7	Tabasalu FC Charma	19	9	0	10	33	50	27
8	FA Tartu Kalev	19	8	1	10	49	42	25
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	19	4	2	13	38	46	14
10	Tallinna JK Legion	18	2	1	15	16	77	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Trans Narva II	Parnu JK Vaprus II
JK Tammeka Tartu II	1-2 L	2-3 L
JK Tallinna Kalev II	3-2 W	2-2 D
FA Tartu Kalev	3-2 W	2-1 W
Johvi FC Phoenix	1-1 D	2-4 L
FC Levadia Tallinn U19	4-4 D	4-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: JK Trans Narva II (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Trans Narva II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	1-2	12	6	L
05/07	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	2-1	14	4	W
22/06	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	3-2	7	1	W
18/06	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	3-2	8	4	W
31/05	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	2-0	5-0	7	3	W
28/05	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
24/05	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-2	6	11	L
17/05	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-4	0-4	12	6	L
10/05	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	4-0	4-4	5	0	D
06/05	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-1	7	2	L

Parnu JK Vaprus II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-4	2-4	6	4	L
22/06	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	4-1	3	5	W
19/06	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	2-2	8	5	D
15/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	4-2	1	6	W
01/06	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	2-3	0	7	L
25/05	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	3-4	3	3	L
17/05	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	4-0	4-0	3	6	W
10/05	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-1	6	8	W
03/05	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	5-0	7-2	5	7	W
28/04	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	3-2	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Trans Narva II vs Parnu JK Vaprus II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Trans Narva II win (59%). Probabilities: JK Trans Narva II 59%, draw 19%, Parnu JK Vaprus II 23%.

How many goals are expected in JK Trans Narva II vs Parnu JK Vaprus II?

The model expects 4.58 goals (JK Trans Narva II 2.81 · Parnu JK Vaprus II 1.77), with a 50% chance of over 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Trans Narva II vs Parnu JK Vaprus II?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.