Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 19/07, 11:30

Prediction: FC Levadia Tallinn U19 vs FA Tartu Kalev

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.48Total

FC Levadia Tallinn U192.58

FA Tartu Kalev1.9

1X2

52% 20% 28%

FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Draw FA Tartu Kalev

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Levadia Tallinn U19 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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FA Tartu Kalev 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Levadia Tallinn U19 1–1 FA Tartu Kalev (2 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Levadia Tallinn U19 1556 · FA Tartu Kalev 1469

	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	Draw	FA Tartu Kalev
Our model	52%	20%	28%
Market	52%	21%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 4.48 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Levadia Tallinn U19 (rating 1556 vs 1469).
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	FA Tartu Kalev
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 2	3 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.6	3.1 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.33

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.85

Under 4.251.95

Diff.: 1 · xG: 5.25

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
03:42 +34’	1.73	4.33	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Levadia Tallinn U19 1–0–1 FA Tartu Kalev

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	FA Tartu Kalev	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Levadia Tallinn U19
28/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	3-1 HT 2-1	FA Tartu Kalev

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JK Tammeka Tartu II	19	12	2	5	54	37	38
2	JK Viljandi Tulevik	19	11	1	7	55	39	34
3	Johvi FC Phoenix	19	11	1	7	49	47	34
4	JK Trans Narva II	18	10	2	6	44	28	32
5	Parnu JK Vaprus II	19	10	2	7	56	42	32
6	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	19	10	2	7	48	34	32
7	Tabasalu FC Charma	19	9	0	10	33	50	27
8	FA Tartu Kalev	19	8	1	10	49	42	25
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	19	4	2	13	38	46	14
10	Tallinna JK Legion	18	2	1	15	16	77	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	FA Tartu Kalev
JK Tallinna Kalev II	4-1 W	2-7 L
JK Tammeka Tartu II	3-2 W	2-2 D
JK Viljandi Tulevik	3-2 W	3-4 L
Parnu JK Vaprus II	2-4 L	1-2 L
Tallinna JK Legion	6-0 W	10-2 W
Tabasalu FC Charma	5-0 W	1-3 L
JK Trans Narva II	4-4 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn U19 (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Levadia Tallinn U19

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	4-1	6	4	W
04/07	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	3-2	10	3	W
22/06	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
19/06	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	2-2	3-2	1	4	W
15/06	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-4	4	6	L
01/06	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	3-0	6-0	12	7	W
29/05	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
17/05	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	5-0	4	2	W
10/05	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-4	4-4	9	0	D
02/05	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	2-2	2-5	1	4	L

FA Tartu Kalev

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	5-1	10-2	–	–	W
21/06	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
18/06	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	2-3	5	4	L
13/06	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	3-4	5	5	L
10/06	Paide Linnameeskond III Estonia Cup	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
01/06	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	2-7	3	6	L
29/05	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
24/05	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	3-0	6-0	9	1	W
16/05	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	2-2	9	6	D
10/05	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-2	9	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Levadia Tallinn U19 vs FA Tartu Kalev?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Levadia Tallinn U19 win (52%). Probabilities: FC Levadia Tallinn U19 52%, draw 20%, FA Tartu Kalev 28%.

How many goals are expected in FC Levadia Tallinn U19 vs FA Tartu Kalev?

The model expects 4.48 goals (FC Levadia Tallinn U19 2.58 · FA Tartu Kalev 1.9), with a 52% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Levadia Tallinn U19 vs FA Tartu Kalev?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.