Prediction: Ceara vs Athletic Club MG
Expected goals: 2.26 (Ceara 1.39 · Athletic Club MG 0.87). The model gives 48% home, 30% draw, 22% away. Over 2 goals (53%) and both teams to score (50%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Ceara is 3-1-6 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Athletic Club MG 3-5-2 over its own.
| Ceara | Draw | Athletic Club MG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 30% | 22% |
| Market | 48% | 30% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Athletic Club MG (rating 1452 vs 1523).
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ceara | Athletic Club MG | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.4 | 1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 6.2 | 2.3 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.5 | 3.7 / 0.4 |
Standings · Brazil Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 18 | 31 |
| 2 | Gremio Novorizontino | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 27 | 14 | 30 |
| 3 | Criciuma | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 30 |
| 4 | Fortaleza | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 28 |
| 5 | EC Juventude | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 26 |
| 6 | Sao Bernardo SP | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 14 | 25 |
| 7 | Operario PR | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 25 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 25 |
| 9 | Goias | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 21 | 24 |
| 10 | Cuiaba | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 23 |
| 11 | Athletic Club MG | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 22 |
| 12 | Nautico | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 21 |
| 13 | Atletico GO | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 19 | 21 |
| 14 | Botafogo SP | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 15 | 19 |
| 15 | CRB | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 24 | 29 | 19 |
| 16 | Londrina | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 24 | 18 |
| 17 | Ceara | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 20 | 17 |
| 18 | Avai | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 24 | 13 |
| 19 | Ponte Preta | 16 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 31 | 8 |
| 20 | America MG | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 27 | 6 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ceara | Athletic Club MG |
|---|---|---|
| Goias | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| EC Juventude | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Botafogo SP | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Avai | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Fortaleza | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 3 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Athletic Club MG (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ceara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 14 | 3 | L |
| 28/06 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 21/06 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 16/06 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 11/06 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
2-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 10 | L |
| 23/05 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 17/05 | Fortaleza Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 14/05 | Atletico Mineiro Copa do Brasil |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 5 | L |
Athletic Club MG
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Londrina Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 11/06 | Sport Recife Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 30/05 | Fortaleza Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 26/05 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 13/05 | Internacional Copa do Brasil |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Cuiaba Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 05/05 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ceara vs Athletic Club MG?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ceara win (48%). Probabilities: Ceara 48%, draw 30%, Athletic Club MG 22%.
How many goals are expected in Ceara vs Athletic Club MG?
The model expects 2.26 goals (Ceara 1.39 · Athletic Club MG 0.87), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Athletic Club MG?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.