Prediction: Criciuma vs Sport Recife
Expected goals: 2.04 (Criciuma 1.28 · Sport Recife 0.77). The model gives 48% home, 30% draw, 22% away. Under 2.25 goals (54%) and not both to score (52%). Most likely score: 1-0.
Recent form leaves Criciuma with 5 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses over 10 games; Sport Recife has piled up 4-3-3 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Criciuma won 2 and Sport Recife 1, with 3 draws.
| Criciuma | Draw | Sport Recife | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 32% | 21% |
| Market | 49% | 29% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Criciuma (rating 1557 vs 1514).
- H2H favours Criciuma: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Criciuma | Sport Recife | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.1 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.7 | 1.2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0 | 5.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Criciuma 2–3–1 Sport Recife
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09/23 Brazil Serie B | Sport Recife | 3-3 HT 2-1 | Criciuma |
| 25/05/23 Brazil Serie B | Criciuma | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Sport Recife |
| 03/08/22 Brazil Serie B | Sport Recife | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Criciuma |
| 23/04/22 Brazil Serie B | Criciuma | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Sport Recife |
| 09/11/19 Brazil Serie B | Sport Recife | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Criciuma |
| 11/08/19 Brazil Serie B | Criciuma | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sport Recife |
Standings · Brazil Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Gremio Novorizontino | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 27 |
| 3 | Criciuma | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 27 |
| 4 | Sao Bernardo SP | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 12 | 25 |
| 5 | EC Juventude | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 25 |
| 6 | Operario PR | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 25 |
| 7 | Fortaleza | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 25 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 25 |
| 9 | Athletic Club MG | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 22 |
| 10 | Goias | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | 21 |
| 11 | Atletico GO | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 21 |
| 12 | Nautico | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 20 |
| 13 | Cuiaba | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 20 |
| 14 | CRB | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 19 |
| 15 | Ceara | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 17 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 17 | Londrina | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 15 |
| 18 | Avai | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 21 | 13 |
| 19 | Ponte Preta | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 29 | 8 |
| 20 | America MG | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 26 | 6 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Criciuma | Sport Recife |
|---|---|---|
| Sao Bernardo SP | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Atletico GO | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| EC Juventude | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| CRB | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Criciuma (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Criciuma
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 24/06 | America MG Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 16/06 | Ceara Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 06/06 | Londrina Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 25/05 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 10/05 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 02/05 | Cuiaba Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 27/04 | CRB Brazil Serie B |
2-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
Sport Recife
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Fortaleza Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 19/06 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 11/06 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 31/05 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 28/05 | Fortaleza Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | Fortaleza Brazil Copa Nordeste |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 18/05 | CRB Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Criciuma vs Sport Recife?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Criciuma win (48%). Probabilities: Criciuma 48%, draw 30%, Sport Recife 22%.
How many goals are expected in Criciuma vs Sport Recife?
The model expects 2.04 goals (Criciuma 1.28 · Sport Recife 0.77), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Criciuma vs Sport Recife?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.