Prediction: Fortaleza vs Ponte Preta
Expected goals: 2.81 (Fortaleza 2.12 · Ponte Preta 0.69). The model gives 70% home, 20% draw, 10% away. Under 2.75 goals (53%) and both teams to score (50%). Most likely score: 2-0.
Over its last 10 matches, Fortaleza sits at 4-1-5 (W-D-L), while Ponte Preta arrives on a 1-1-8 run. In the last 2 head-to-head meetings the record reads 0 wins for Fortaleza and 1 for Ponte Preta, with 1 draw.
| Fortaleza | Draw | Ponte Preta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 20% | 10% |
| Market | 70% | 20% | 10% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortaleza (rating 1493 vs 1401).
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fortaleza | Ponte Preta | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.2 | 0.6 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.4 | 3.9 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.3 | 4.8 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fortaleza 0–1–1 Ponte Preta
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/18 Brazil Serie B | Fortaleza | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Ponte Preta |
| 08/07/18 Brazil Serie B | Ponte Preta | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Fortaleza |
Standings · Brazil Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Gremio Novorizontino | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 27 |
| 3 | Criciuma | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 27 |
| 4 | Sao Bernardo SP | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 12 | 25 |
| 5 | EC Juventude | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 25 |
| 6 | Operario PR | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 25 |
| 7 | Fortaleza | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 25 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 25 |
| 9 | Athletic Club MG | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 22 |
| 10 | Goias | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | 21 |
| 11 | Atletico GO | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 21 |
| 12 | Nautico | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 20 |
| 13 | Cuiaba | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 20 |
| 14 | CRB | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 19 |
| 15 | Ceara | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 17 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 17 | Londrina | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 15 |
| 18 | Avai | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 21 | 13 |
| 19 | Ponte Preta | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 29 | 8 |
| 20 | America MG | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 26 | 6 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fortaleza | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| CRB | 1-1 D | 2-4 L |
| America MG | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Londrina | 3-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Fortaleza (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fortaleza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Sport Recife Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | CRB Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 17/06 | America MG Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 10/06 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 06/06 | Vitoria Brazil Copa Nordeste |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 03/06 | Vitoria Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 28/05 | Sport Recife Brazil Copa Nordeste |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Londrina Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 21/05 | Sport Recife Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
Ponte Preta
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 23/06 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 14/06 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 10/06 | Cuiaba Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 02/06 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 24/05 | CRB Brazil Serie B |
2-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 19/05 | Londrina Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-4 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Sport Recife Brazil Serie B |
1-2 | 1-3 | 11 | 9 | L |
| 03/05 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | America MG Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fortaleza vs Ponte Preta?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Fortaleza win (70%). Probabilities: Fortaleza 70%, draw 20%, Ponte Preta 10%.
How many goals are expected in Fortaleza vs Ponte Preta?
The model expects 2.81 goals (Fortaleza 2.12 · Ponte Preta 0.69), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza vs Ponte Preta?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.