Prediction: Cuiaba vs America MG
Expected goals: 2.14 (Cuiaba 1.39 · America MG 0.75). The model gives 51% home, 29% draw, 19% away. Over 2 goals (51%) and not both to score (52%). Most likely score: 1-0.
Recent form leaves Cuiaba with 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses over 10 games; America MG has piled up 2-1-7 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Cuiaba won 3 and America MG 1, with 2 draws.
| Cuiaba | Draw | America MG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 30% | 19% |
| Market | 52% | 29% | 20% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cuiaba (rating 1510 vs 1429).
- H2H favours Cuiaba: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cuiaba | America MG | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1 | 1 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.6 | 2.4 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 5.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cuiaba 3–2–1 America MG
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/25 Brazil Serie B | America MG | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Cuiaba |
| 24/07/25 Brazil Serie B | Cuiaba | 3-1 HT 1-1 | America MG |
| 16/09/23 Brazil Serie A | Cuiaba | 2-2 HT 2-2 | America MG |
| 07/05/23 Brazil Serie A | America MG | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Cuiaba |
| 29/09/22 Brazil Serie A | Cuiaba | 2-1 HT 1-0 | America MG |
| 04/06/22 Brazil Serie A | America MG | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Cuiaba |
Standings · Brazil Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Gremio Novorizontino | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 27 |
| 3 | Criciuma | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 27 |
| 4 | Sao Bernardo SP | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 12 | 25 |
| 5 | EC Juventude | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 25 |
| 6 | Operario PR | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 25 |
| 7 | Fortaleza | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 25 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 25 |
| 9 | Athletic Club MG | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 22 |
| 10 | Goias | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | 21 |
| 11 | Atletico GO | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 21 |
| 12 | Nautico | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 20 |
| 13 | Cuiaba | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 20 |
| 14 | CRB | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 19 |
| 15 | Ceara | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 17 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 17 | Londrina | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 15 |
| 18 | Avai | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 21 | 13 |
| 19 | Ponte Preta | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 29 | 8 |
| 20 | America MG | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 26 | 6 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cuiaba | America MG |
|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| CRB | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Nautico | 0-1 L | 0-4 L |
| Criciuma | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Cuiaba (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cuiaba
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Londrina Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 21/06 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 13 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 10/06 | Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 01/06 | CRB Brazil Serie B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 17/05 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 30/04 | Anapolis FC Brazil Copa Centro-Oeste |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
America MG
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 24/06 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 17/06 | Fortaleza Brazil Serie B |
2-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 09/06 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 30/05 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 07/05 | Cianorte Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
0-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 04/05 | CRB Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cuiaba vs America MG?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cuiaba win (51%). Probabilities: Cuiaba 51%, draw 29%, America MG 19%.
How many goals are expected in Cuiaba vs America MG?
The model expects 2.14 goals (Cuiaba 1.39 · America MG 0.75), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs America MG?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.