Prediction: Mushuc Runa vs Independiente del Valle
Expected goals: 2.65 (Mushuc Runa 1.05 · Independiente del Valle 1.6). The model gives 24% home, 27% draw, 49% away. Under 2.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Mushuc Runa is 3-2-5 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Independiente del Valle 8-0-2 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 1 wins for Mushuc Runa and 3 for Independiente del Valle, with 2 draws.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (rating 1456 vs 1593).
- H2H favours Independiente del Valle: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mushuc Runa | Independiente del Valle | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.3 | 2.5 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 1.2 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 70/30/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.4 | 4.1 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.8 / 0.5 | 4.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mushuc Runa 1–2–3 Independiente del Valle
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Mushuc Runa |
| 20/09/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Mushuc Runa | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Independiente del Valle |
| 20/08/25 Copa Sudamericana | Mushuc Runa | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Independiente del Valle |
| 13/08/25 Copa Sudamericana | Independiente del Valle | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Mushuc Runa |
| 23/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Mushuc Runa |
| 05/10/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Mushuc Runa | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Independiente del Valle |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 36 | 18 | 40 |
| 2 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 29 |
| 3 | LDU Quito | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 27 |
| 4 | Deportivo Cuenca | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 27 |
| 5 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 14 | 26 |
| 6 | SD Aucas | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 26 |
| 7 | Macara | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 18 | 23 |
| 8 | Emelec | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 17 | 23 |
| 9 | Orense | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 22 | 22 |
| 10 | Tecnico Universitario | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 16 | 20 |
| 11 | Leones FC | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 12 | Guayaquil City | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 19 | 19 |
| 13 | Mushuc Runa | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 21 | 18 |
| 14 | Delfin SC | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 17 |
| 15 | Club Atletico Libertad | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 17 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 23 | 12 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mushuc Runa | Independiente del Valle |
|---|---|---|
| Guayaquil City | 2-2 D | 4-2 W |
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Manta FC | 1-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente del Valle (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mushuc Runa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 31/05 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 23/05 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 12/05 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 23/04 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 11 | W |
| 11/04 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
Independiente del Valle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | Rosario Central Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-3 | 12 | 6 | L |
| 20/05 | Libertad Asuncion Copa Libertadores |
2-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador Super Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 10/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 06/05 | UCV Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 01/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mushuc Runa vs Independiente del Valle?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente del Valle win (49%). Probabilities: Mushuc Runa 24%, draw 27%, Independiente del Valle 49%.
How many goals are expected in Mushuc Runa vs Independiente del Valle?
The model expects 2.65 goals (Mushuc Runa 1.05 · Independiente del Valle 1.6), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Mushuc Runa vs Independiente del Valle?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.