Prediction: Emelec vs Barcelona Guayaquil
Expected goals: 2.02 (Emelec 1.02 · Barcelona Guayaquil 1). The model gives 34% home, 33% draw, 33% away. Under 2 goals (51%) and not both to score (52%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Emelec is 4-4-2 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Barcelona Guayaquil 5-1-4 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 0 wins for Emelec and 5 for Barcelona Guayaquil, with 1 draw.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barcelona Guayaquil (rating 1492 vs 1543).
- H2H favours Barcelona Guayaquil: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Emelec | Barcelona Guayaquil | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.2 | 1.7 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 4.8 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Emelec 0–1–5 Barcelona Guayaquil
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Barcelona Guayaquil | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Emelec |
| 15/09/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
| 19/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Barcelona Guayaquil | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Emelec |
| 02/02/25 America Friendlies | Barcelona Guayaquil | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Emelec |
| 21/10/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Barcelona Guayaquil | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Emelec |
| 29/04/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 36 | 18 | 40 |
| 2 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 29 |
| 3 | LDU Quito | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 27 |
| 4 | Deportivo Cuenca | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 27 |
| 5 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 17 | 26 |
| 6 | SD Aucas | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 26 |
| 7 | Tecnico Universitario | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 17 | 23 |
| 8 | Macara | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 18 | 23 |
| 9 | Emelec | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 17 | 23 |
| 10 | Orense | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 24 | 22 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 23 | 21 |
| 12 | Leones FC | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 13 | Guayaquil City | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 19 | 19 |
| 14 | Delfin SC | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 17 |
| 15 | Club Atletico Libertad | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 17 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 23 | 12 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Emelec | Barcelona Guayaquil |
|---|---|---|
| Delfin SC | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Manta FC | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Tecnico Universitario | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Emelec
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 01/06 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/05 | Daquilema FC Ecuador Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 18/05 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 10/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 04/05 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 26/04 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 22/04 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
Barcelona Guayaquil
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/06 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 29/05 | Cruzeiro Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 25/05 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | Universidad Catolica Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 12/05 | FC Insutec Ecuador Cup |
1-0 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 06/05 | Boca Juniors Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 11 | W |
| 03/05 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Emelec vs Barcelona Guayaquil?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Emelec win (34%). Probabilities: Emelec 34%, draw 33%, Barcelona Guayaquil 33%.
How many goals are expected in Emelec vs Barcelona Guayaquil?
The model expects 2.02 goals (Emelec 1.02 · Barcelona Guayaquil 1), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Emelec vs Barcelona Guayaquil?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.