Prediction: Deportivo Cuenca vs SD Aucas
Expected goals: 2.13 (Deportivo Cuenca 1.07 · SD Aucas 1.06). The model gives 35% home, 31% draw, 34% away. Under 2.25 goals (54%) and not both to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Deportivo Cuenca is 4-4-2 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and SD Aucas 6-2-2 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 3 wins for Deportivo Cuenca and 2 for SD Aucas, with 1 draw.
| Deportivo Cuenca | Draw | SD Aucas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 32% | 34% |
| Market | 35% | 30% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SD Aucas (rating 1500 vs 1553).
- H2H favours Deportivo Cuenca: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Cuenca | SD Aucas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/70/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 4.3 | 2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.2 | 4.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Cuenca 3–1–2 SD Aucas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Cuenca |
| 30/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Deportivo Cuenca |
| 26/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Deportivo Cuenca | 1-2 HT 0-1 | SD Aucas |
| 11/09/25 Ecuador Cup | SD Aucas | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Deportivo Cuenca |
| 22/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Deportivo Cuenca |
| 22/02/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Deportivo Cuenca | 2-0 HT 1-0 | SD Aucas |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 36 | 18 | 40 |
| 2 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 29 |
| 3 | LDU Quito | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 27 |
| 4 | Deportivo Cuenca | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 27 |
| 5 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 17 | 26 |
| 6 | SD Aucas | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 26 |
| 7 | Tecnico Universitario | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 17 | 23 |
| 8 | Macara | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 18 | 23 |
| 9 | Emelec | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 17 | 23 |
| 10 | Orense | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 24 | 22 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 23 | 21 |
| 12 | Leones FC | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 13 | Guayaquil City | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 19 | 19 |
| 14 | Delfin SC | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 17 |
| 15 | Club Atletico Libertad | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 17 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 23 | 12 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo Cuenca | SD Aucas |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 0-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Delfin SC | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| LDU Quito | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Club Atletico Libertad | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Guayaquil City | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportivo Cuenca (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Cuenca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 02/06 | CD La Union Ecuador Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 31/05 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 27/05 | Santos Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 20/05 | Deportivo Recoleta Copa Sudamericana |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 06/05 | San Lorenzo Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
SD Aucas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 26/05 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 21/05 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 28/04 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 23/04 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Cuenca vs SD Aucas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Cuenca win (35%). Probabilities: Deportivo Cuenca 35%, draw 31%, SD Aucas 34%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Cuenca vs SD Aucas?
The model expects 2.13 goals (Deportivo Cuenca 1.07 · SD Aucas 1.06), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Cuenca vs SD Aucas?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.