Football · Sweden 1.div Södra · 16/09, 19:00

Prediction: Lunds BK vs Angelholm

Team pages: Lunds BK · Angelholm

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Lunds BK2.25

Angelholm1.1

1X2

63% 20% 17%

Lunds BK Draw Angelholm

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Lunds BK 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDWDDLWWDW

Angelholm 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

WLDDLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Lunds BK 2–2–2 Angelholm (6 last)

Angelholm0-0Lunds BK
Lunds BK1-2Angelholm
Angelholm1-2Lunds BK
Lunds BK4-2Angelholm
Angelholm1-1Lunds BK
Lunds BK1-2Angelholm

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lunds BK 1522 · Angelholm 1419

	Lunds BK	Draw	Angelholm
Our model	62%	21%	16%
Market	63%	20%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lunds BK (rating 1522 vs 1419).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lunds BK	Angelholm
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.5	1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.4	1.5 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	1.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.50

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.42▼	Pinn 1.44
X	4.00 → 4.50▲	Pinn 4.54
2	4.20 → 5.25▲	Pinn 5.63 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:54 +17’	1.60	4.00	4.20
13:27 +6’	1.45▼	4.20▲	5.25▲
15:05 +2’	1.42▼	4.50▲	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:55 +38’	1.44	4.54	5.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lunds BK 2–2–2 Angelholm

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Sweden 1.div Södra	Angelholm	0-0 HT 0-0	Lunds BK
17/10/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	Lunds BK	1-2 HT 0-2	Angelholm
01/06/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	Angelholm	1-2 HT 0-1	Lunds BK
05/08/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	Lunds BK	4-2 HT 2-0	Angelholm
26/04/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	Angelholm	1-1 HT 1-0	Lunds BK
15/09/23 Sweden 1.div Södra	Lunds BK	1-2 HT 0-1	Angelholm

Standings · Sweden 1.div Södra · Ettan 2026, Sodra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Trelleborgs FF	21	12	6	3	44	24	42
2	Hässleholms IF	21	12	3	6	41	26	39
3	Atvidabergs FF	21	11	6	4	45	32	39
4	Lunds BK	21	10	8	3	44	26	38
5	FC Rosengård 1917	21	9	7	5	35	28	34
6	Tvååkers IF	21	9	6	6	28	28	33
7	Ariana FC Malmo	21	8	8	5	39	31	32
8	FC Trollhättan	21	7	7	7	33	33	28
9	Jonkopings Sodra	21	7	6	8	25	20	27
10	Skövde AIK	21	6	9	6	23	29	27
11	BK Olympic	21	8	2	11	38	43	26
12	Eskilsminne IF	21	7	4	10	32	38	25
13	Kristianstad FC	21	5	6	10	25	33	21
14	Laholms FK	21	6	3	12	28	38	21
15	Angelholm	21	3	8	10	25	39	17
16	Utsiktens BK	21	1	5	15	17	54	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lunds BK	Angelholm
Utsiktens BK	1-1 D	4-2 W
BK Olympic	7-1 W	0-5 L
Ariana FC Malmo	5-2 W	2-2 D
Skövde AIK	1-1 D	0-3 L
Jonkopings Sodra	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Lunds BK (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lunds BK

LDWDDLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	FC Rosengård 1917 Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
05/09	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
28/08	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	4-1	7-1	8	3	W
22/08	Ariana FC Malmo Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	5-2	3	2	W
14/08	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-3	9	4	L
08/08	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
02/08	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
27/06	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	2-0	2-1	8	4	W
18/06	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
12/06	Ariana FC Malmo Sweden 1.div Södra	0-3	1-4	10	1	L

Angelholm

WLDDLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	0-3	11	1	L
05/09	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-5	6	1	L
29/08	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-1	1	0	L
22/08	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-4	7	2	L
15/08	FC Trollhättan Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
07/08	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
01/08	Ariana FC Malmo Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	2-2	0	4	D
27/06	FC Trollhättan Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
18/06	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-2	2-3	7	0	L
13/06	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	2-1	4-2	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lunds BK vs Angelholm?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lunds BK win (63%). Probabilities: Lunds BK 63%, draw 20%, Angelholm 17%.

How many goals are expected in Lunds BK vs Angelholm?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Lunds BK 2.25 · Angelholm 1.1), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lunds BK vs Angelholm?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.