Football · Sweden 1.div Södra · 19/09, 16:00

Prediction: Ariana FC Malmo vs Utsiktens BK

Team pages: Ariana FC Malmo · Utsiktens BK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Ariana FC Malmo2.39

Utsiktens BK0.87

1X2

71% 18% 11%

Ariana FC Malmo Draw Utsiktens BK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Ariana FC Malmo 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLDLDDDL

Utsiktens BK 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLDDLDLD

Head-to-head

Ariana FC Malmo 1–0 Utsiktens BK (1 last)

Utsiktens BK0-3Ariana FC Malmo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ariana FC Malmo 1478 · Utsiktens BK 1414

	Ariana FC Malmo	Draw	Utsiktens BK
Our model	70%	19%	11%
Market	71%	17%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ariana FC Malmo (rating 1478 vs 1414).
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ariana FC Malmo	Utsiktens BK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.9	0.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.2 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.3	1.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.25

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.90

2 (+1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 6.11 ★
2	7.50 → 7.50	Pinn 8.24

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 9.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:03 +6’	1.25	5.25	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:10 +59’	1.24	6.04	8.23
05:57 +187’	1.24▲	6.01▼	8.18▼
13:04 +12’	1.23▼	6.11▲	8.24▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ariana FC Malmo 1–0–0 Utsiktens BK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Sweden 1.div Södra	Utsiktens BK	0-3 HT 0-1	Ariana FC Malmo

Standings · Sweden 1.div Södra · Ettan 2026, Sodra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Trelleborgs FF	22	13	6	3	48	27	45
2	Hässleholms IF	22	13	3	6	43	26	42
3	Lunds BK	22	11	8	3	46	26	41
4	Atvidabergs FF	22	11	6	5	45	33	39
5	FC Rosengård 1917	22	9	7	6	38	32	34
6	Tvååkers IF	22	9	6	7	30	32	33
7	Ariana FC Malmo	22	8	8	6	39	33	32
8	FC Trollhättan	22	8	7	7	36	34	31
9	Jonkopings Sodra	22	8	6	8	26	20	30
10	BK Olympic	22	9	2	11	39	43	29
11	Eskilsminne IF	22	8	4	10	36	40	28
12	Skövde AIK	22	6	9	7	24	32	27
13	Laholms FK	22	6	4	12	28	38	22
14	Kristianstad FC	22	5	6	11	25	34	21
15	Angelholm	22	3	8	11	25	41	17
16	Utsiktens BK	22	1	6	15	17	54	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ariana FC Malmo	Utsiktens BK
Hässleholms IF	0-2 L	0-2 L
Tvååkers IF	0-0 D	2-2 D
Atvidabergs FF	2-2 D	0-3 L
Laholms FK	2-2 D	0-0 D
Lunds BK	2-5 L	1-1 D
Trelleborgs FF	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	0 W 3 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ariana FC Malmo

LWDLDLDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	0-2	6	2	L
12/09	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
05/09	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-2	2-2	2	3	D
30/08	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
22/08	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-5	3	2	L
15/08	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	2-2	12	4	D
08/08	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-2	4	2	L
01/08	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	2-2	7	4	D
27/06	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
21/06	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-2	13	3	L

Utsiktens BK

LLDLDDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
11/09	FC Trollhättan Sweden 1.div Södra	0-3	0-5	6	4	L
05/09	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
30/08	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	1-2	5	0	L
22/08	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
16/08	FC Rosengård 1917 Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	1-1	3	0	D
08/08	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
01/08	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	2-2	7	2	D
27/06	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-3	1-3	1	2	L
17/06	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	0-3	12	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ariana FC Malmo vs Utsiktens BK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ariana FC Malmo win (71%). Probabilities: Ariana FC Malmo 71%, draw 18%, Utsiktens BK 11%.

How many goals are expected in Ariana FC Malmo vs Utsiktens BK?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Ariana FC Malmo 2.39 · Utsiktens BK 0.87), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ariana FC Malmo vs Utsiktens BK?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.