Football · Sweden 1.div Södra · 19/09, 16:00

Prediction: Atvidabergs FF vs Lunds BK

Team pages: Atvidabergs FF · Lunds BK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Atvidabergs FF1.73

Lunds BK1.55

1X2

41% 25% 34%

Atvidabergs FF Draw Lunds BK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Atvidabergs FF 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWLDWL

Lunds BK 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDDLWWDWW

Head-to-head

Atvidabergs FF 1–2–3 Lunds BK (6 last)

Lunds BK2-0Atvidabergs FF
Lunds BK1-1Atvidabergs FF
Atvidabergs FF2-3Lunds BK
Lunds BK2-0Atvidabergs FF
Atvidabergs FF2-2Lunds BK
Atvidabergs FF2-1Lunds BK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atvidabergs FF 1509 · Lunds BK 1561

	Atvidabergs FF	Draw	Lunds BK
Our model	41%	25%	34%
Market	42%	24%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lunds BK (rating 1509 vs 1561).
H2H favours Lunds BK: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atvidabergs FF	Lunds BK
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.8	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.6	3.4 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.70

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.26 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.75 → 2.63▼	Pinn 2.75

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:03 +6’	2.05	3.70	2.75
22:22 +4’	2.10▲	3.70	2.70▼
09:02 +2’	2.15▲	3.70	2.63▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +58’	2.26	3.50	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atvidabergs FF 1–2–3 Lunds BK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Sweden 1.div Södra	Lunds BK	2-0 HT 1-0	Atvidabergs FF
30/09/23 Sweden 1.div Södra	Lunds BK	1-1 HT 1-0	Atvidabergs FF
22/06/23 Sweden 1.div Södra	Atvidabergs FF	2-3 HT 1-0	Lunds BK
06/08/22 Sweden 1.div Södra	Lunds BK	2-0 HT 0-0	Atvidabergs FF
15/04/22 Sweden 1.div Södra	Atvidabergs FF	2-2 HT 2-1	Lunds BK
25/09/21 Sweden 1.div Södra	Atvidabergs FF	2-1 HT 1-1	Lunds BK

Standings · Sweden 1.div Södra · Ettan 2026, Sodra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Trelleborgs FF	22	13	6	3	48	27	45
2	Hässleholms IF	22	13	3	6	43	26	42
3	Lunds BK	22	11	8	3	46	26	41
4	Atvidabergs FF	22	11	6	5	45	33	39
5	FC Rosengård 1917	22	9	7	6	38	32	34
6	Tvååkers IF	22	9	6	7	30	32	33
7	Ariana FC Malmo	22	8	8	6	39	33	32
8	FC Trollhättan	22	8	7	7	36	34	31
9	Jonkopings Sodra	22	8	6	8	26	20	30
10	BK Olympic	22	9	2	11	39	43	29
11	Eskilsminne IF	22	8	4	10	36	40	28
12	Skövde AIK	22	6	9	7	24	32	27
13	Laholms FK	22	6	4	12	28	38	22
14	Kristianstad FC	22	5	6	11	25	34	21
15	Angelholm	22	3	8	11	25	41	17
16	Utsiktens BK	22	1	6	15	17	54	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atvidabergs FF	Lunds BK
Jonkopings Sodra	0-1 L	0-0 D
BK Olympic	3-2 W	7-1 W
Ariana FC Malmo	2-2 D	5-2 W
Angelholm	4-1 W	2-0 W
Skövde AIK	2-1 W	1-1 D
Hässleholms IF	0-2 L	0-3 L
FC Rosengård 1917	3-3 D	2-0 W
Utsiktens BK	3-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atvidabergs FF

WDLWWWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
12/09	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	3-2	1	2	W
05/09	Ariana FC Malmo Sweden 1.div Södra	2-1	2-2	4	3	D
29/08	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	1-4	2-5	6	3	L
22/08	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	2-0	4-1	2	2	W
16/08	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
08/08	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	2-1	13	5	W
01/08	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-2	16	3	L
27/06	FC Rosengård 1917 Sweden 1.div Södra	3-2	3-3	4	3	D
17/06	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	2-0	3-0	6	0	W

Lunds BK

DWDDLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
11/09	FC Rosengård 1917 Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
05/09	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
28/08	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	4-1	7-1	8	3	W
22/08	Ariana FC Malmo Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	5-2	3	2	W
14/08	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-3	9	4	L
08/08	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
02/08	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
27/06	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	2-0	2-1	8	4	W
18/06	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atvidabergs FF vs Lunds BK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atvidabergs FF win (41%). Probabilities: Atvidabergs FF 41%, draw 25%, Lunds BK 34%.

How many goals are expected in Atvidabergs FF vs Lunds BK?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Atvidabergs FF 1.73 · Lunds BK 1.55), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Atvidabergs FF vs Lunds BK?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.