Football · Sweden 1.div Södra · 02/10, 19:00

Prediction: Kristianstad FC vs Ariana FC Malmo

Team pages: Kristianstad FC · Ariana FC Malmo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

Kristianstad FC1.45

Ariana FC Malmo1.86

1X2

29% 25% 46%

Kristianstad FC Draw Ariana FC Malmo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Kristianstad FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLDLWW

Ariana FC Malmo 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLDDDLWW

Head-to-head

Kristianstad FC 1–2–0 Ariana FC Malmo (3 last)

Ariana FC Malmo2-2Kristianstad FC
Ariana FC Malmo2-2Kristianstad FC
Kristianstad FC2-1Ariana FC Malmo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kristianstad FC 1498 · Ariana FC Malmo 1492

	Kristianstad FC	Draw	Ariana FC Malmo
Our model	29%	24%	46%
Market	29%	25%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kristianstad FC	Ariana FC Malmo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3	3.7 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.60

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:17 +8’	3.10	3.60	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Kristianstad FC 1–2–0 Ariana FC Malmo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	2-2 HT 1-1	Kristianstad FC
17/09/22 Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	Ariana FC Malmo	2-2 HT 2-0	Kristianstad FC
29/05/22 Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	Kristianstad FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Ariana FC Malmo

Standings · Sweden 1.div Södra · Ettan 2026, Sodra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Trelleborgs FF	24	15	6	3	53	28	51
2	Atvidabergs FF	24	13	6	5	48	34	45
3	Hässleholms IF	24	13	3	8	44	29	42
4	Lunds BK	24	11	8	5	46	28	41
5	Ariana FC Malmo	24	10	8	6	44	35	38
6	FC Rosengård 1917	24	10	8	6	41	34	38
7	FC Trollhättan	24	10	7	7	41	36	37
8	Jonkopings Sodra	24	9	6	9	29	25	33
9	Tvååkers IF	24	9	6	9	32	37	33
10	BK Olympic	24	9	3	12	41	46	30
11	Skövde AIK	24	7	9	8	28	36	30
12	Eskilsminne IF	24	8	5	11	39	44	29
13	Kristianstad FC	24	7	6	11	29	36	27
14	Laholms FK	24	6	4	14	31	43	22
15	Angelholm	24	3	9	12	28	47	18
16	Utsiktens BK	24	2	6	16	21	57	12

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kristianstad FC	Ariana FC Malmo
Lunds BK	1-0 W	2-5 L
Laholms FK	3-2 W	2-2 D
BK Olympic	0-1 L	2-2 D
Hässleholms IF	1-2 L	0-2 L
Atvidabergs FF	5-2 W	2-2 D
Tvååkers IF	1-2 L	0-0 D
Angelholm	1-0 W	2-2 D
Eskilsminne IF	2-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 5 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Kristianstad FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kristianstad FC

LWLLWLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
20/09	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
17/09	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
13/09	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
05/09	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-2	1	3	L
29/08	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	4-1	5-2	4	3	W
23/08	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	1-3	3	3	L
15/08	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-2	4	2	L
07/08	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-0	2	1	W
01/07	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-3	4	5	L

Ariana FC Malmo

DLDLDDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
19/09	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	3-1	13	4	W
16/09	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	0-2	6	2	L
12/09	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
05/09	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-2	2-2	2	3	D
30/08	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
22/08	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-5	3	2	L
15/08	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	2-2	12	4	D
08/08	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-2	4	2	L
01/08	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	2-2	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kristianstad FC vs Ariana FC Malmo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ariana FC Malmo win (46%). Probabilities: Kristianstad FC 29%, draw 25%, Ariana FC Malmo 46%.

How many goals are expected in Kristianstad FC vs Ariana FC Malmo?

The model expects 3.31 goals (Kristianstad FC 1.45 · Ariana FC Malmo 1.86), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Kristianstad FC vs Ariana FC Malmo?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.