Football · Sweden 1.div Södra · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Lunds BK vs FC Trollhättan

Team pages: Lunds BK · FC Trollhättan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Lunds BK1.8

FC Trollhättan1.21

1X2

51% 24% 25%

Lunds BK Draw FC Trollhättan

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 65% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Lunds BK 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWDWWLLL

FC Trollhättan 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Lunds BK 4–2–0 FC Trollhättan (6 last)

FC Trollhättan1-1Lunds BK
Lunds BK1-1FC Trollhättan
FC Trollhättan1-5Lunds BK
FC Trollhättan0-2Lunds BK
Lunds BK3-2FC Trollhättan
Lunds BK1-0FC Trollhättan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lunds BK 1492 · FC Trollhättan 1569

	Lunds BK	Draw	FC Trollhättan
Our model	50%	25%	25%
Market	51%	23%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Trollhättan (rating 1492 vs 1569).
H2H favours Lunds BK: 4-2-0.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lunds BK	FC Trollhättan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	2.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	1.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.3	2.7 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.80

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
14:06 +48’	1.75	3.80	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lunds BK 4–2–0 FC Trollhättan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Sweden 1.div Södra	FC Trollhättan	1-1 HT 0-0	Lunds BK
09/08/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	Lunds BK	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Trollhättan
12/04/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	FC Trollhättan	1-5 HT 0-2	Lunds BK
08/09/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	FC Trollhättan	0-2 HT 0-0	Lunds BK
20/04/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	Lunds BK	3-2 HT 1-2	FC Trollhättan
28/10/23 Sweden 1.div Södra	Lunds BK	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Trollhättan

Standings · Sweden 1.div Södra · Ettan 2026, Sodra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Trelleborgs FF	25	16	6	3	55	28	54
2	Atvidabergs FF	25	13	7	5	49	35	46
3	Hässleholms IF	25	14	3	8	46	30	45
4	Lunds BK	25	11	8	6	46	29	41
5	Ariana FC Malmo	25	11	8	6	45	35	41
6	FC Trollhättan	25	10	8	7	42	37	38
7	FC Rosengård 1917	25	10	8	7	41	37	38
8	Jonkopings Sodra	25	9	6	10	29	26	33
9	Tvååkers IF	25	9	6	10	33	39	33
10	Skövde AIK	25	8	9	8	31	38	33
11	Eskilsminne IF	25	9	5	11	40	44	32
12	BK Olympic	25	9	3	13	41	48	30
13	Kristianstad FC	25	7	6	12	29	37	27
14	Laholms FK	25	7	4	14	32	43	25
15	Angelholm	25	4	9	12	31	47	21
16	Utsiktens BK	25	2	6	17	23	60	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lunds BK	FC Trollhättan
Laholms FK	0-1 L	0-1 L
Atvidabergs FF	0-1 L	1-1 D
Angelholm	2-0 W	1-0 W
FC Rosengård 1917	2-0 W	2-3 L
Utsiktens BK	1-1 D	5-0 W
Hässleholms IF	0-3 L	1-0 W
Skövde AIK	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Trollhättan (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lunds BK

DLWWDWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
25/09	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
19/09	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
16/09	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
11/09	FC Rosengård 1917 Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
05/09	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
28/08	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	4-1	7-1	8	3	W
22/08	Ariana FC Malmo Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	5-2	3	2	W
14/08	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-3	9	4	L
08/08	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	1-1	4	3	D

FC Trollhättan

LWWLWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
26/09	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	2-1	4-2	12	1	W
20/09	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
17/09	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	2-1	3-1	4	3	W
11/09	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	3-0	5-0	1	4	W
05/09	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	4-1	4-2	9	2	W
29/08	FC Rosengård 1917 Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	2-3	13	5	L
22/08	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
15/08	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
08/08	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-1	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lunds BK vs FC Trollhättan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lunds BK win (51%). Probabilities: Lunds BK 51%, draw 24%, FC Trollhättan 25%.

How many goals are expected in Lunds BK vs FC Trollhättan?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Lunds BK 1.8 · FC Trollhättan 1.21), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lunds BK vs FC Trollhättan?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.