Football · Sweden 1.div Södra · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Ariana FC Malmo vs Skövde AIK

Team pages: Ariana FC Malmo · Skövde AIK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

Ariana FC Malmo2.1

Skövde AIK1.3

1X2

55% 23% 22%

Ariana FC Malmo Draw Skövde AIK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Ariana FC Malmo 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Skövde AIK 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Ariana FC Malmo 1–2–0 Skövde AIK (3 last)

Skövde AIK0-4Ariana FC Malmo
Ariana FC Malmo1-1Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK2-2Ariana FC Malmo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ariana FC Malmo 1522 · Skövde AIK 1493

	Ariana FC Malmo	Draw	Skövde AIK
Our model	55%	23%	22%
Market	55%	23%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ariana FC Malmo	Skövde AIK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	1.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.9	2.6 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.90

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:42 +12’	1.61	3.90	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ariana FC Malmo 1–2–0 Skövde AIK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Sweden 1.div Södra	Skövde AIK	0-4 HT 0-2	Ariana FC Malmo
07/09/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	1-1 HT 0-0	Skövde AIK
10/05/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	Skövde AIK	2-2 HT 1-0	Ariana FC Malmo

Standings · Sweden 1.div Södra · Ettan 2026, Sodra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Trelleborgs FF	25	16	6	3	55	28	54
2	Atvidabergs FF	25	13	7	5	49	35	46
3	Hässleholms IF	25	14	3	8	46	30	45
4	Lunds BK	25	11	8	6	46	29	41
5	Ariana FC Malmo	25	11	8	6	45	35	41
6	FC Trollhättan	25	10	8	7	42	37	38
7	FC Rosengård 1917	25	10	8	7	41	37	38
8	Jonkopings Sodra	25	9	6	10	29	26	33
9	Tvååkers IF	25	9	6	10	33	39	33
10	Skövde AIK	25	8	9	8	31	38	33
11	Eskilsminne IF	25	9	5	11	40	44	32
12	BK Olympic	25	9	3	13	41	48	30
13	Kristianstad FC	25	7	6	12	29	37	27
14	Laholms FK	25	7	4	14	32	43	25
15	Angelholm	25	4	9	12	31	47	21
16	Utsiktens BK	25	2	6	17	23	60	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ariana FC Malmo	Skövde AIK
Kristianstad FC	1-0 W	3-1 W
Utsiktens BK	3-1 W	3-2 W
Tvååkers IF	0-0 D	1-1 D
Atvidabergs FF	2-2 D	1-2 L
Lunds BK	2-5 L	1-1 D
BK Olympic	2-2 D	2-1 W
Trelleborgs FF	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Skövde AIK (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ariana FC Malmo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-0	0	3	W
27/09	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
19/09	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	3-1	13	4	W
16/09	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	0-2	6	2	L
12/09	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
05/09	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-2	2-2	2	3	D
30/08	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
22/08	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-5	3	2	L
15/08	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	2-2	12	4	D
08/08	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-2	4	2	L

Skövde AIK

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	3-2	7	3	W
26/09	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	2-1	4	1	W
21/09	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	2-3	3	3	L
17/09	FC Trollhättan Sweden 1.div Södra	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
12/09	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	2-0	3-0	3	1	W
06/09	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-1	6	1	W
29/08	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	1-1	10	1	D
23/08	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	3-1	7	3	W
16/08	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
08/08	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	1-1	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ariana FC Malmo vs Skövde AIK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ariana FC Malmo win (55%). Probabilities: Ariana FC Malmo 55%, draw 23%, Skövde AIK 22%.

How many goals are expected in Ariana FC Malmo vs Skövde AIK?

The model expects 3.4 goals (Ariana FC Malmo 2.1 · Skövde AIK 1.3), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ariana FC Malmo vs Skövde AIK?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.