Football · Sweden 1.div Södra · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Jonkopings Sodra vs Ariana FC Malmo

Team pages: Jonkopings Sodra · Ariana FC Malmo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Jonkopings Sodra1.19

Ariana FC Malmo1.07

1X2

39% 28% 33%

Jonkopings Sodra Draw Ariana FC Malmo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Jonkopings Sodra 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLDWWLLL

Ariana FC Malmo 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DLDDDLWWWW

Head-to-head

Jonkopings Sodra 3–1–1 Ariana FC Malmo (5 last)

Ariana FC Malmo1-0Jonkopings Sodra
Jonkopings Sodra1-0Ariana FC Malmo
Ariana FC Malmo0-0Jonkopings Sodra
Ariana FC Malmo0-3Jonkopings Sodra
Jonkopings Sodra1-0Ariana FC Malmo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jonkopings Sodra 1476 · Ariana FC Malmo 1531

	Jonkopings Sodra	Draw	Ariana FC Malmo
Our model	37%	31%	32%
Market	40%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ariana FC Malmo (rating 1476 vs 1531).
H2H favours Jonkopings Sodra: 3-1-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jonkopings Sodra	Ariana FC Malmo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 0.8	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.9	3.3 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.50

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:14 +22’	2.25	3.50	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Jonkopings Sodra 3–1–1 Ariana FC Malmo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	1-0 HT 1-0	Jonkopings Sodra
01/11/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	Jonkopings Sodra	1-0 HT 1-0	Ariana FC Malmo
05/04/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	0-0 HT 0-0	Jonkopings Sodra
10/11/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	0-3 HT 0-2	Jonkopings Sodra
29/06/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	Jonkopings Sodra	1-0 HT 0-0	Ariana FC Malmo

Standings · Sweden 1.div Södra · Ettan 2026, Sodra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Trelleborgs FF	26	17	6	3	57	28	57
2	Hässleholms IF	26	15	3	8	47	30	48
3	Atvidabergs FF	26	13	8	5	50	36	47
4	Lunds BK	26	12	8	6	50	32	44
5	Ariana FC Malmo	26	12	8	6	49	37	44
6	FC Rosengård 1917	26	10	9	7	42	38	39
7	FC Trollhättan	26	10	8	8	45	41	38
8	Tvååkers IF	26	9	7	10	34	40	34
9	Jonkopings Sodra	26	9	6	11	29	27	33
10	BK Olympic	26	10	3	13	48	50	33
11	Skövde AIK	26	8	9	9	33	42	33
12	Eskilsminne IF	26	9	5	12	42	51	32
13	Kristianstad FC	26	7	6	13	29	39	27
14	Laholms FK	26	7	5	14	33	44	26
15	Angelholm	26	5	9	12	33	47	24
16	Utsiktens BK	26	2	6	18	23	62	12

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jonkopings Sodra	Ariana FC Malmo
Hässleholms IF	0-1 L	0-2 L
Eskilsminne IF	0-1 L	2-1 W
Utsiktens BK	0-3 L	3-1 W
Skövde AIK	3-2 W	4-2 W
Atvidabergs FF	1-0 W	2-2 D
Kristianstad FC	0-0 D	1-0 W
Tvååkers IF	0-1 L	0-0 D
Laholms FK	0-0 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ariana FC Malmo (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jonkopings Sodra

DDWLDWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
03/10	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
26/09	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
21/09	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	3-2	6	3	W
16/09	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
13/09	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
06/09	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
29/08	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
22/08	FC Rosengård 1917 Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
15/08	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	3	3	D

Ariana FC Malmo

DLDDDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	4-2	6	1	W
02/10	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-0	0	3	W
27/09	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
19/09	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	3-1	13	4	W
16/09	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	0-2	6	2	L
12/09	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
05/09	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-2	2-2	2	3	D
30/08	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
22/08	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-5	3	2	L
15/08	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	2-2	12	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jonkopings Sodra vs Ariana FC Malmo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jonkopings Sodra win (39%). Probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 39%, draw 28%, Ariana FC Malmo 33%.

How many goals are expected in Jonkopings Sodra vs Ariana FC Malmo?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Jonkopings Sodra 1.19 · Ariana FC Malmo 1.07), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Ariana FC Malmo?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.