Football · Sweden 1.div Södra · 24/10, 13:00

Prediction: Ariana FC Malmo vs Angelholm

Team pages: Ariana FC Malmo · Angelholm

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.55Total

Ariana FC Malmo2.2

Angelholm1.35

1X2

56% 22% 22%

Ariana FC Malmo Draw Angelholm

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Ariana FC Malmo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Angelholm 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Ariana FC Malmo 1–2–3 Angelholm (6 last)

Angelholm2-2Ariana FC Malmo
Ariana FC Malmo1-3Angelholm
Angelholm2-1Ariana FC Malmo
Angelholm0-0Ariana FC Malmo
Angelholm3-2Ariana FC Malmo
Ariana FC Malmo3-1Angelholm

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ariana FC Malmo 1517 · Angelholm 1426

	Ariana FC Malmo	Draw	Angelholm
Our model	56%	22%	22%
Market	56%	22%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.55 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ariana FC Malmo (rating 1517 vs 1426).
H2H favours Angelholm: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ariana FC Malmo	Angelholm
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	0.9 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.4	1.8 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	1.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.00

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.14
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.42 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:27 +56’	1.61	4.00	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:54 +42’	1.60	4.14	4.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ariana FC Malmo 1–2–3 Angelholm

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Sweden 1.div Södra	Angelholm	2-2 HT 0-0	Ariana FC Malmo
10/10/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	1-3 HT 0-2	Angelholm
18/04/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	Angelholm	2-1 HT 1-1	Ariana FC Malmo
08/03/25 Club Friendly List	Angelholm	0-0 HT 0-0	Ariana FC Malmo
03/11/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	Angelholm	3-2 HT 1-0	Ariana FC Malmo
19/04/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	3-1 HT 2-1	Angelholm

Standings · Sweden 1.div Södra · Ettan 2026, Sodra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Trelleborgs FF	27	18	6	3	61	30	60
2	Hässleholms IF	27	16	3	8	49	31	51
3	Atvidabergs FF	27	13	8	6	51	38	47
4	Lunds BK	27	12	8	7	52	36	44
5	Ariana FC Malmo	27	12	8	7	50	39	44
6	FC Rosengård 1917	27	10	10	7	43	39	40
7	FC Trollhättan	27	10	8	9	46	44	38
8	Jonkopings Sodra	27	10	6	11	31	28	36
9	BK Olympic	27	11	3	13	52	51	36
10	Tvååkers IF	27	9	8	10	35	41	35
11	Skövde AIK	27	8	10	9	35	44	34
12	Eskilsminne IF	27	9	6	12	44	53	33
13	Kristianstad FC	27	8	6	13	32	40	30
14	Laholms FK	27	8	5	14	34	44	29
15	Angelholm	27	5	9	13	33	48	24
16	Utsiktens BK	27	2	6	19	24	66	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ariana FC Malmo	Angelholm
Jonkopings Sodra	1-2 L	0-1 L
Skövde AIK	4-2 W	0-3 L
Eskilsminne IF	2-1 W	2-2 D
Utsiktens BK	3-1 W	2-0 W
Atvidabergs FF	2-2 D	1-4 L
Laholms FK	2-2 D	0-1 L
Lunds BK	2-5 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Ariana FC Malmo (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ariana FC Malmo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
10/10	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	4-2	6	1	W
02/10	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-0	0	3	W
27/09	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
19/09	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	3-1	13	4	W
16/09	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	0-2	6	2	L
12/09	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
05/09	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-2	2-2	2	3	D
30/08	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
22/08	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-5	3	2	L

Angelholm

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
11/10	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	2-0	2-0	8	5	W
03/10	FC Rosengård 1917 Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	3-0	5	0	W
27/09	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-4	4	3	L
21/09	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
16/09	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
12/09	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	0-3	11	1	L
05/09	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-5	6	1	L
29/08	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-1	1	0	L
22/08	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-4	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ariana FC Malmo vs Angelholm?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ariana FC Malmo win (56%). Probabilities: Ariana FC Malmo 56%, draw 22%, Angelholm 22%.

How many goals are expected in Ariana FC Malmo vs Angelholm?

The model expects 3.55 goals (Ariana FC Malmo 2.2 · Angelholm 1.35), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ariana FC Malmo vs Angelholm?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.