Football · Sweden 1.div Södra · 01/11, 16:00

Prediction: Ariana FC Malmo vs FC Trollhättan

Team pages: Ariana FC Malmo · FC Trollhättan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Ariana FC Malmo2.02

FC Trollhättan1.6

1X2

47% 23% 30%

Ariana FC Malmo Draw FC Trollhättan

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Ariana FC Malmo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDDLWWWWLL

FC Trollhättan 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWDLLL

Head-to-head

Ariana FC Malmo 1–2–3 FC Trollhättan (6 last)

FC Trollhättan0-2Ariana FC Malmo
FC Trollhättan2-1Ariana FC Malmo
Ariana FC Malmo3-3FC Trollhättan
FC Trollhättan3-2Ariana FC Malmo
Ariana FC Malmo0-1FC Trollhättan
Ariana FC Malmo2-2FC Trollhättan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ariana FC Malmo 1520 · FC Trollhättan 1505

	Ariana FC Malmo	Draw	FC Trollhättan
Our model	47%	23%	30%
Market	47%	24%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Trollhättan: 3-2-1.
High corners: 13.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ariana FC Malmo	FC Trollhättan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	2.6 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	1.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.3	3 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.75

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
21:19 +3’	1.91	3.75	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ariana FC Malmo 1–2–3 FC Trollhättan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Sweden 1.div Södra	FC Trollhättan	0-2 HT 0-1	Ariana FC Malmo
28/09/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	FC Trollhättan	2-1 HT 0-1	Ariana FC Malmo
15/06/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	3-3 HT 1-2	FC Trollhättan
17/08/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	FC Trollhättan	3-2 HT 2-0	Ariana FC Malmo
19/05/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Trollhättan
07/10/23 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	2-2 HT 2-2	FC Trollhättan

Standings · Sweden 1.div Södra · Ettan 2026, Sodra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Trelleborgs FF	28	19	6	3	64	31	63
2	Hässleholms IF	28	16	4	8	50	32	52
3	Lunds BK	28	13	8	7	56	37	47
4	Atvidabergs FF	28	13	8	7	52	41	47
5	Ariana FC Malmo	28	12	8	8	52	42	44
6	FC Rosengård 1917	28	10	10	8	44	41	40
7	Jonkopings Sodra	28	11	6	11	35	30	39
8	FC Trollhättan	28	10	8	10	48	48	38
9	Tvååkers IF	28	10	8	10	39	42	38
10	BK Olympic	28	11	3	14	53	56	36
11	Skövde AIK	28	8	11	9	36	45	35
12	Kristianstad FC	28	9	6	13	34	41	33
13	Eskilsminne IF	28	9	6	13	45	57	33
14	Laholms FK	28	9	5	14	39	45	32
15	Angelholm	28	6	9	13	36	50	27
16	Utsiktens BK	28	2	6	20	25	70	12

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ariana FC Malmo	FC Trollhättan
Jonkopings Sodra	1-2 L	2-4 L
Skövde AIK	4-2 W	3-1 W
Kristianstad FC	1-0 W	1-3 L
Eskilsminne IF	2-1 W	4-2 W
Utsiktens BK	3-1 W	5-0 W
Hässleholms IF	0-2 L	1-0 W
Tvååkers IF	0-0 D	4-2 W
Atvidabergs FF	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Trollhättan (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ariana FC Malmo

DDDLWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	2-3	12	3	L
17/10	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
10/10	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	4-2	6	1	W
02/10	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-0	0	3	W
27/09	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
19/09	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	3-1	13	4	W
16/09	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	0-2	6	2	L
12/09	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
05/09	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-2	2-2	2	3	D
30/08	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-2	5	4	D

FC Trollhättan

LWWWWWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	1-2	2-4	9	4	L
18/10	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	1-3	5	2	L
10/10	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-3	3-4	9	3	L
03/10	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
26/09	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	2-1	4-2	12	1	W
20/09	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
17/09	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	2-1	3-1	4	3	W
11/09	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	3-0	5-0	1	4	W
05/09	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	4-1	4-2	9	2	W
29/08	FC Rosengård 1917 Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	2-3	13	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ariana FC Malmo vs FC Trollhättan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ariana FC Malmo win (47%). Probabilities: Ariana FC Malmo 47%, draw 23%, FC Trollhättan 30%.

How many goals are expected in Ariana FC Malmo vs FC Trollhättan?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Ariana FC Malmo 2.02 · FC Trollhättan 1.6), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ariana FC Malmo vs FC Trollhättan?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.