Football · Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand · 05/09, 12:00

Prediction: Nacka FC vs Smedby AIS

Team pages: Nacka FC · Smedby AIS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Nacka FC1.71

Smedby AIS1.36

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Nacka FC Draw Smedby AIS

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Nacka FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDWWWL

Smedby AIS 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWLLWDWDW

Head-to-head

Nacka FC 0–5 Smedby AIS (5 last)

Smedby AIS3-1Nacka FC
Smedby AIS5-0Nacka FC
Nacka FC0-1Smedby AIS
Smedby AIS5-0Nacka FC
Nacka FC0-1Smedby AIS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nacka FC 1462 · Smedby AIS 1523

	Nacka FC	Draw	Smedby AIS
Our model	45%	26%	30%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Smedby AIS (rating 1462 vs 1523).
H2H favours Smedby AIS: 5-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nacka FC	Smedby AIS
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.1	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 6	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 02:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.00▼	Bet365 2.00
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.67 ★
2	2.35 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:27 +6’	2.50	3.50	2.35
00:03 +14’	1.95▼	3.60▲	3.10▲
02:29 +4’	2.00▲	3.60	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:32 +1’	2.02	3.60	2.84
08:56	1.93▼	3.67▲	2.97▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacka FC 0–0–5 Smedby AIS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	Smedby AIS	3-1 HT 1-0	Nacka FC
05/10/24 Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	Smedby AIS	5-0 HT 4-0	Nacka FC
08/06/24 Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	Nacka FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Smedby AIS
15/10/23 Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	Smedby AIS	5-0 HT 2-0	Nacka FC
17/06/23 Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	Nacka FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Smedby AIS

Standings · Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand · Sodra Svealand

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IK Sleipner	19	11	4	4	43	31	37
2	FOC Farsta	19	11	3	5	42	21	36
3	BK Forward	19	11	3	5	37	23	36
4	IFK Haninge	20	11	3	6	49	36	36
5	Smedby AIS	19	10	4	5	38	25	34
6	Nykopings BIS	19	10	3	6	31	21	33
7	Ragsveds IF	20	9	5	6	38	32	32
8	Fittja IF	19	9	2	8	33	32	29
9	Karlslunds IF FK	19	6	5	8	25	29	23
10	Örebro Syrianska IF	19	6	2	11	18	22	20
11	Lindö FF	19	5	2	12	26	36	17
12	Nacka FC	19	5	2	12	21	38	17
13	Syrianska FC	19	4	4	11	28	48	16
14	IF Eker Örebro	19	4	2	13	19	54	14
15	IF Sylvia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nacka FC	Smedby AIS
FOC Farsta	1-4 L	1-1 D
BK Forward	1-0 W	3-1 W
Örebro Syrianska IF	1-0 W	2-0 W
IF Eker Örebro	4-0 W	1-0 W
Lindö FF	1-1 D	0-2 L
Nykopings BIS	1-4 L	1-0 W
IFK Haninge	1-5 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Smedby AIS (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nacka FC

LLLLLDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	FOC Farsta Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	1-1	1-4	8	4	L
22/08	BK Forward Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
16/08	Örebro Syrianska IF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	1-0	1-0	16	4	W
09/08	IF Eker Örebro Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	4-0	–	–	W
01/08	Lindö FF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	1-1	1-1	6	1	D
25/06	Nykopings BIS Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-2	1-4	3	0	L
21/06	IF Eker Örebro Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
14/06	Lindö FF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-1	0-4	2	4	L
06/06	IFK Haninge Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-2	1-5	4	2	L
29/05	Nykopings BIS Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-1	0-2	4	5	L

Smedby AIS

DLWLLWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	BK Forward Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	3-1	3-1	3	3	W
22/08	Syrianska FC Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
15/08	IF Eker Örebro Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
08/08	Karlslunds IF FK Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
01/08	Örebro Syrianska IF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
24/06	Lindö FF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
21/06	IFK Haninge Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-3	1-4	6	3	L
15/06	Nykopings BIS Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
07/06	Örebro Syrianska IF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
30/05	FOC Farsta Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nacka FC vs Smedby AIS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacka FC win (45%). Probabilities: Nacka FC 45%, draw 25%, Smedby AIS 30%.

How many goals are expected in Nacka FC vs Smedby AIS?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Nacka FC 1.71 · Smedby AIS 1.36), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Nacka FC vs Smedby AIS?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.