Football · Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand · 12/09, 14:00
Prediction: FOC Farsta vs Smedby AIS
Team pages: FOC Farsta · Smedby AIS
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.84Total
FOC Farsta1.89
Smedby AIS0.95
1X2
FOC Farsta
Draw
Smedby AIS
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
FOC Farsta
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Smedby AIS
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FOC Farsta
3–1–1
Smedby AIS
(5 last)
- Smedby AIS1-1FOC Farsta
- Smedby AIS1-0FOC Farsta
- FOC Farsta2-1Smedby AIS
- Smedby AIS0-1FOC Farsta
- FOC Farsta7-2Smedby AIS
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FOC Farsta 1574 · Smedby AIS 1519
| FOC Farsta | Draw | Smedby AIS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 24% | 17% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.84 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FOC Farsta (rating 1574 vs 1519).
- H2H favours FOC Farsta: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FOC Farsta | Smedby AIS | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 0.8 | 1.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.3 | 1.7 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FOC Farsta 3–1–1 Smedby AIS
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/26 Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand | Smedby AIS | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FOC Farsta |
| 27/09/25 Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand | Smedby AIS | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FOC Farsta |
| 29/05/25 Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand | FOC Farsta | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Smedby AIS |
| 02/09/23 Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand | Smedby AIS | 0-1 HT 0-0 | FOC Farsta |
| 06/05/23 Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand | FOC Farsta | 7-2 HT 2-2 | Smedby AIS |
Standings · Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand · Sodra Svealand
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IK Sleipner | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 47 | 32 | 43 |
| 2 | FOC Farsta | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 44 | 22 | 39 |
| 3 | IFK Haninge | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 49 | 36 | 36 |
| 4 | BK Forward | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 25 | 36 |
| 5 | Nykopings BIS | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 21 | 36 |
| 6 | Smedby AIS | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 39 | 26 | 35 |
| 7 | Ragsveds IF | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 40 | 33 | 35 |
| 8 | Fittja IF | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 33 | 32 | 30 |
| 9 | Karlslunds IF FK | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 28 | 35 | 24 |
| 10 | Örebro Syrianska IF | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 22 | 25 | 23 |
| 11 | Nacka FC | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 40 | 18 |
| 12 | Lindö FF | 21 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 27 | 41 | 17 |
| 13 | Syrianska FC | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 28 | 48 | 17 |
| 14 | IF Eker Örebro | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 57 | 15 |
| 15 | IF Sylvia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FOC Farsta | Smedby AIS |
|---|---|---|
| BK Forward | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Nacka FC | 4-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Örebro Syrianska IF | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Nykopings BIS | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| IFK Haninge | 2-2 D | 1-4 L |
| IF Eker Örebro | 4-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Karlslunds IF FK | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 1 L | 4 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: FOC Farsta (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FOC Farsta
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | BK Forward Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/08 | Nacka FC Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Örebro Syrianska IF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/08 | Nykopings BIS Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | IFK Haninge Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 31/07 | Ragsveds IF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 27/06 | IF Eker Örebro Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
2-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | Karlslunds IF FK Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | IF Eker Örebro Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
0-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | BK Forward Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
2-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
Smedby AIS
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Nacka FC Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 29/08 | BK Forward Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
3-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Syrianska FC Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 15/08 | IF Eker Örebro Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 08/08 | Karlslunds IF FK Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 01/08 | Örebro Syrianska IF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 24/06 | Lindö FF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | IFK Haninge Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
0-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 15/06 | Nykopings BIS Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Örebro Syrianska IF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FOC Farsta vs Smedby AIS?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FOC Farsta win (59%). Probabilities: FOC Farsta 59%, draw 23%, Smedby AIS 18%.
How many goals are expected in FOC Farsta vs Smedby AIS?
The model expects 2.84 goals (FOC Farsta 1.89 · Smedby AIS 0.95), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FOC Farsta vs Smedby AIS?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.