Football · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · 30/08, 16:00

Prediction: Vänersborgs IF vs IK Tord

Team pages: Vänersborgs IF · IK Tord

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Vänersborgs IF1.53

IK Tord1.75

1X2

33% 25% 42%

Vänersborgs IF Draw IK Tord

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Vänersborgs IF 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWDLLL

IK Tord 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDLDWLDL

Head-to-head

Vänersborgs IF 0–2–1 IK Tord (3 last)

IK Tord3-3Vänersborgs IF
IK Tord4-0Vänersborgs IF
Vänersborgs IF1-1IK Tord

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vänersborgs IF 1419 · IK Tord 1454

	Vänersborgs IF	Draw	IK Tord
Our model	33%	25%	42%
Market	33%	24%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vänersborgs IF	IK Tord
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.7	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.5	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.7	2.6 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.70

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:25 +8’	2.70	3.70	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vänersborgs IF 0–2–1 IK Tord

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	IK Tord	3-3 HT 1-0	Vänersborgs IF
29/06/25 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	IK Tord	4-0 HT 0-0	Vänersborgs IF
06/04/25 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Vänersborgs IF	1-1 HT 0-0	IK Tord

Standings · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · Norra Gotaland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Husqvarna FF	18	15	3	0	44	12	48
2	Skara	19	12	5	2	37	21	41
3	Ahlafors IF	19	9	7	3	45	23	34
4	IFK Skövde FK	18	10	4	4	34	22	34
5	Grebbestads IF	18	9	3	6	32	26	30
6	Herrestads AIF	19	8	6	5	36	33	30
7	Stenungsunds IF	19	7	5	7	34	26	26
8	Vanersborgs FK	19	6	4	9	26	34	22
9	Motala AIF FK	18	5	6	7	24	24	21
10	IFK Kumla	19	5	5	9	20	37	20
11	Lidköpings FK	19	3	6	10	20	38	15
12	IK Tord	18	1	9	8	21	32	12
13	IF Karlstad II	19	2	6	11	20	35	12
14	Vänersborgs IF	18	2	3	13	20	50	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vänersborgs IF	IK Tord
Herrestads AIF	0-3 L	2-3 L
IFK Kumla	1-2 L	2-0 W
Motala AIF FK	3-3 D	1-1 D
Husqvarna FF	0-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: IK Tord (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vänersborgs IF

LLLDLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Herrestads AIF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
17/08	Vanersborgs FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-2	0-2	5	6	L
08/08	IFK Kumla Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
01/08	Motala AIF FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	2-1	3-3	–	–	D
26/06	Stenungsunds IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
18/06	Grebbestads IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	3-1	3-4	–	–	L
15/06	Herrestads AIF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	2-2	8	3	D
04/06	Stenungsunds IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-2	0-5	3	1	L
31/05	Motala AIF FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-2	0-2	7	1	L
22/05	Husqvarna FF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-4	0-4	4	1	L

IK Tord

DLLDLDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-2	1-2	11	2	L
15/08	Motala AIF FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
09/08	Herrestads AIF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	2-3	1	0	L
31/07	IFK Kumla Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
27/06	Ahlafors IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
18/06	IFK Kumla Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-1	4	0	L
13/06	IF Karlstad II Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
06/06	Lidköpings FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
21/05	Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
15/05	Husqvarna FF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	1-1	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vänersborgs IF vs IK Tord?

According to our model, the most likely result is an IK Tord win (42%). Probabilities: Vänersborgs IF 33%, draw 25%, IK Tord 42%.

How many goals are expected in Vänersborgs IF vs IK Tord?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Vänersborgs IF 1.53 · IK Tord 1.75), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Vänersborgs IF vs IK Tord?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.