Football · Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand · 26/09, 12:30

Prediction: Helges IF vs FC Gute

Team pages: Helges IF · FC Gute

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

Helges IF1.31

FC Gute2.1

1X2

23% 22% 55%

Helges IF Draw FC Gute

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Helges IF 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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FC Gute 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Helges IF 0–1 FC Gute (1 last)

FC Gute1-0Helges IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Helges IF 1418 · FC Gute 1482

	Helges IF	Draw	FC Gute
Our model	23%	23%	55%
Market	24%	21%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Gute (rating 1418 vs 1482).
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Helges IF	FC Gute
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.5	1.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 3.2	2.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	1.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.80

X4.33

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:27 +13’	3.80	4.33	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Helges IF 0–0–1 FC Gute

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	FC Gute	1-0 HT 0-0	Helges IF

Standings · Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Skiljebo SK	22	15	5	2	53	24	50
2	Sunnersta AIF	22	14	5	3	51	19	47
3	Ängby IF	22	13	6	3	46	25	45
4	Enskede IK	22	13	4	5	36	23	43
5	Falu BS FK	22	12	5	5	35	25	41
6	Taby FK	22	11	5	6	39	24	38
7	FC Gute	22	8	5	9	35	32	29
8	Bollstanäs SK	22	7	7	8	38	42	28
9	IK Franke	22	7	4	11	35	39	25
10	IFK Lidingo	22	5	5	12	26	42	20
11	Kungsängens IF	22	3	10	9	24	34	19
12	Viggbyholms IK	22	5	4	13	21	42	19
13	Korsnas IF FK	22	2	5	15	20	52	11
14	Helges IF	22	2	4	16	19	55	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Helges IF	FC Gute
Viggbyholms IK	2-4 L	3-0 W
IFK Lidingo	1-2 L	4-0 W
Taby FK	1-1 D	1-2 L
Kungsängens IF	1-1 D	4-1 W
Falu BS FK	1-2 L	0-1 L
Bollstanäs SK	0-5 L	2-3 L
Korsnas IF FK	3-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Gute (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Helges IF

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Viggbyholms IK Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	1-1	2-4	6	0	L
13/09	IFK Lidingo Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
05/09	Taby FK Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
30/08	Kungsängens IF Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
23/08	Falu BS FK Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
16/08	Skiljebo SK Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	1-2	2-4	4	5	L
09/08	Bollstanäs SK Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	0-2	0-5	–	–	L
01/08	Korsnas IF FK Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
25/06	Sunnersta AIF Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
21/06	Taby FK Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	0-1	0-3	2	4	L

FC Gute

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Enskede IK Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
12/09	Viggbyholms IK Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
05/09	IK Franke Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
29/08	IFK Lidingo Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
22/08	Korsnas IF FK Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	3-0	4-1	–	–	W
15/08	Bollstanäs SK Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
08/08	Ängby IF Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
01/08	Kungsängens IF Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	1-1	4-1	–	–	W
27/06	Taby FK Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	1-0	1-2	2	2	L
18/06	Falu BS FK Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Helges IF vs FC Gute?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Gute win (55%). Probabilities: Helges IF 23%, draw 22%, FC Gute 55%.

How many goals are expected in Helges IF vs FC Gute?

The model expects 3.41 goals (Helges IF 1.31 · FC Gute 2.1), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Helges IF vs FC Gute?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.