Football · Sweden 1.div Södra · 16/09, 19:00

Prediction: Hässleholms IF vs Ariana FC Malmo

Team pages: Hässleholms IF · Ariana FC Malmo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Hässleholms IF1.66

Ariana FC Malmo1.55

1X2

40% 25% 35%

Hässleholms IF Draw Ariana FC Malmo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Hässleholms IF 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWWWWL

Ariana FC Malmo 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDLDLDDD

Head-to-head

Hässleholms IF 2–1–3 Ariana FC Malmo (6 last)

Ariana FC Malmo3-2Hässleholms IF
Hässleholms IF2-1Ariana FC Malmo
Ariana FC Malmo3-0Hässleholms IF
Hässleholms IF1-0Ariana FC Malmo
Hässleholms IF1-1Ariana FC Malmo
Ariana FC Malmo2-0Hässleholms IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hässleholms IF 1557 · Ariana FC Malmo 1494

	Hässleholms IF	Draw	Ariana FC Malmo
Our model	40%	25%	35%
Market	40%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hässleholms IF (rating 1557 vs 1494).
H2H favours Ariana FC Malmo: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hässleholms IF	Ariana FC Malmo
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1	1.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.1	3.6 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.31
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.72 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:19 +13’	2.25	3.60	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:28 +5’	2.31	3.36	2.62
14:55 +12’	2.31	3.43▲	2.72▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hässleholms IF 2–1–3 Ariana FC Malmo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	3-2 HT 2-0	Hässleholms IF
04/08/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	Hässleholms IF	2-1 HT 1-1	Ariana FC Malmo
11/04/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	3-0 HT 1-0	Hässleholms IF
22/02/25 Club Friendly List	Hässleholms IF	1-0 HT 1-0	Ariana FC Malmo
20/08/22 Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	Hässleholms IF	1-1 HT 1-1	Ariana FC Malmo
30/04/22 Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	Ariana FC Malmo	2-0 HT 1-0	Hässleholms IF

Standings · Sweden 1.div Södra · Ettan 2026, Sodra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Trelleborgs FF	21	12	6	3	44	24	42
2	Hässleholms IF	21	12	3	6	41	26	39
3	Atvidabergs FF	21	11	6	4	45	32	39
4	Lunds BK	21	10	8	3	44	26	38
5	FC Rosengård 1917	21	9	7	5	35	28	34
6	Tvååkers IF	21	9	6	6	28	28	33
7	Ariana FC Malmo	21	8	8	5	39	31	32
8	FC Trollhättan	21	7	7	7	33	33	28
9	Jonkopings Sodra	21	7	6	8	25	20	27
10	Skövde AIK	21	6	9	6	23	29	27
11	BK Olympic	21	8	2	11	38	43	26
12	Eskilsminne IF	21	7	4	10	32	38	25
13	Kristianstad FC	21	5	6	10	25	33	21
14	Laholms FK	21	6	3	12	28	38	21
15	Angelholm	21	3	8	10	25	39	17
16	Utsiktens BK	21	1	5	15	17	54	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hässleholms IF	Ariana FC Malmo
Trelleborgs FF	1-2 L	1-2 L
Laholms FK	2-1 W	2-2 D
Lunds BK	3-0 W	2-5 L
Atvidabergs FF	2-0 W	2-2 D
Tvååkers IF	4-2 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hässleholms IF (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hässleholms IF

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	1-2	8	7	L
05/09	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
29/08	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
24/08	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	2-0	2-1	0	5	W
14/08	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	3-0	2	4	W
08/08	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
01/08	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
26/06	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	3-1	4-2	4	1	W
18/06	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-2	2	2	D
14/06	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-2	2	6	L

Ariana FC Malmo

WLWDLDLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
05/09	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-2	2-2	2	3	D
30/08	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
22/08	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-5	3	2	L
15/08	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	2-2	12	4	D
08/08	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-2	4	2	L
01/08	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	2-2	7	4	D
27/06	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
21/06	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-2	13	3	L
12/06	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	3-0	4-1	5	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hässleholms IF vs Ariana FC Malmo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hässleholms IF win (40%). Probabilities: Hässleholms IF 40%, draw 25%, Ariana FC Malmo 35%.

How many goals are expected in Hässleholms IF vs Ariana FC Malmo?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Hässleholms IF 1.66 · Ariana FC Malmo 1.55), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Hässleholms IF vs Ariana FC Malmo?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.