Football · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · 18/09, 19:30

Prediction: Herrestads AIF vs IFK Kumla

Team pages: Herrestads AIF · IFK Kumla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.64Total

Herrestads AIF2.21

IFK Kumla1.43

1X2

54% 23% 23%

Herrestads AIF Draw IFK Kumla

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Herrestads AIF 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWWDWWDL

IFK Kumla 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLWLLLDD

Head-to-head

Herrestads AIF 5–1–0 IFK Kumla (6 last)

IFK Kumla1-2Herrestads AIF
Herrestads AIF5-0IFK Kumla
IFK Kumla0-3Herrestads AIF
IFK Kumla0-4Herrestads AIF
Herrestads AIF2-1IFK Kumla
Herrestads AIF1-1IFK Kumla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Herrestads AIF 1537 · IFK Kumla 1434

	Herrestads AIF	Draw	IFK Kumla
Our model	54%	22%	24%
Market	54%	23%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Herrestads AIF (rating 1537 vs 1434).
H2H favours Herrestads AIF: 5-1-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Herrestads AIF	IFK Kumla
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.6	0.7 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.3	1.5 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0.2	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.90

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 10:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.67▼	Bet365 1.67
X	3.80 → 3.90▲	Pinn 4.24 ★
2	3.70 → 3.90▲	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 12.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:29 +40’	1.73	3.80	3.70
06:18 +4’	1.83▲	3.75▼	3.40▼
10:01 +18’	1.67▼	3.90▲	3.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:42 +25’	1.62	4.24	3.66

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Herrestads AIF 5–1–0 IFK Kumla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	IFK Kumla	1-2 HT 0-2	Herrestads AIF
18/10/25 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Herrestads AIF	5-0 HT 1-0	IFK Kumla
26/04/25 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	IFK Kumla	0-3 HT 0-2	Herrestads AIF
03/08/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	IFK Kumla	0-4 HT 0-3	Herrestads AIF
29/03/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Herrestads AIF	2-1 HT 1-1	IFK Kumla
04/09/22 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Herrestads AIF	1-1 HT 1-1	IFK Kumla

Standings · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · Norra Gotaland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Husqvarna FF	21	17	3	1	50	17	54
2	Skara	21	14	5	2	46	22	47
3	IFK Skövde FK	21	12	5	4	38	24	41
4	Ahlafors IF	21	10	7	4	47	24	37
5	Grebbestads IF	21	10	3	8	36	31	33
6	Herrestads AIF	21	8	7	6	39	37	31
7	Vanersborgs FK	21	8	4	9	28	34	28
8	Stenungsunds IF	21	7	6	8	36	29	27
9	Motala AIF FK	21	5	8	8	28	29	23
10	IFK Kumla	21	5	7	9	20	37	22
11	Lidköpings FK	21	5	6	10	23	39	21
12	IK Tord	21	2	9	10	23	36	15
13	IF Karlstad II	21	2	7	12	23	41	13
14	Vänersborgs IF	21	2	3	16	21	58	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Herrestads AIF	IFK Kumla
Stenungsunds IF	1-0 W	0-5 L
Vänersborgs IF	3-0 W	2-1 W
IFK Skövde FK	2-2 D	0-0 D
IK Tord	3-2 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Herrestads AIF (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Herrestads AIF

DLLWWDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Lidköpings FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	1-2	8	2	L
05/09	IF Karlstad II Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
28/08	Stenungsunds IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
21/08	Vänersborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
15/08	IFK Skövde FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
09/08	IK Tord Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	3-2	3	0	W
31/07	Vanersborgs FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	3-1	4-2	7	2	W
26/06	Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
18/06	IFK Skövde FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	1-2	3	0	L
15/06	Vänersborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	2-2	6	3	D

IFK Kumla

DWLLWLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Motala AIF FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
04/09	IFK Skövde FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
29/08	Ahlafors IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-3	1-7	5	4	L
21/08	Husqvarna FF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-3	2-6	4	2	L
15/08	Stenungsunds IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-2	0-5	1	1	L
08/08	Vänersborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
31/07	IK Tord Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
24/06	Grebbestads IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	1-2	1	3	L
18/06	IK Tord Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
11/06	Motala AIF FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-0	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Herrestads AIF vs IFK Kumla?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Herrestads AIF win (54%). Probabilities: Herrestads AIF 54%, draw 23%, IFK Kumla 23%.

How many goals are expected in Herrestads AIF vs IFK Kumla?

The model expects 3.64 goals (Herrestads AIF 2.21 · IFK Kumla 1.43), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Herrestads AIF vs IFK Kumla?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.