Football · Sweden 1.div Södra · 16/10, 19:00

Prediction: Lunds BK vs Trelleborgs FF

Team pages: Lunds BK · Trelleborgs FF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Lunds BK1.59

Trelleborgs FF1.63

1X2

37% 25% 38%

Lunds BK Draw Trelleborgs FF

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Lunds BK 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWLLLW

Trelleborgs FF 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Lunds BK 0–3–3 Trelleborgs FF (6 last)

Trelleborgs FF2-2Lunds BK
Lunds BK2-3Trelleborgs FF
Lunds BK1-2Trelleborgs FF
Lunds BK2-2Trelleborgs FF
Trelleborgs FF1-1Lunds BK
Lunds BK1-2Trelleborgs FF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lunds BK 1505 · Trelleborgs FF 1554

	Lunds BK	Draw	Trelleborgs FF
Our model	37%	25%	38%
Market	37%	25%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Trelleborgs FF (rating 1505 vs 1554).
H2H favours Trelleborgs FF: 3-3-0.
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lunds BK	Trelleborgs FF
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.3	2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.4	3.6 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.60

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:03 +16’	2.45	3.60	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lunds BK 0–3–3 Trelleborgs FF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Sweden 1.div Södra	Trelleborgs FF	2-2 HT 1-0	Lunds BK
20/08/25 Sweden Cup Qualification	Lunds BK	2-3 HT 1-2	Trelleborgs FF
18/03/23 Club Friendly List	Lunds BK	1-2 HT 1-0	Trelleborgs FF
26/02/20 Europe Friendlies	Lunds BK	2-2 HT 1-1	Trelleborgs FF
13/03/19 Europe Friendlies	Trelleborgs FF	1-1 HT 0-0	Lunds BK
07/09/15 Sweden 1.div Södra	Lunds BK	1-2 HT 0-1	Trelleborgs FF

Standings · Sweden 1.div Södra · Ettan 2026, Sodra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Trelleborgs FF	26	17	6	3	57	28	57
2	Hässleholms IF	26	15	3	8	47	30	48
3	Atvidabergs FF	26	13	8	5	50	36	47
4	Lunds BK	26	12	8	6	50	32	44
5	Ariana FC Malmo	26	12	8	6	49	37	44
6	FC Rosengård 1917	26	10	9	7	42	38	39
7	FC Trollhättan	26	10	8	8	45	41	38
8	Tvååkers IF	26	9	7	10	34	40	34
9	Jonkopings Sodra	26	9	6	11	29	27	33
10	BK Olympic	26	10	3	13	48	50	33
11	Skövde AIK	26	8	9	9	33	42	33
12	Eskilsminne IF	26	9	5	12	42	51	32
13	Kristianstad FC	26	7	6	13	29	39	27
14	Laholms FK	26	7	5	14	33	44	26
15	Angelholm	26	5	9	12	33	47	24
16	Utsiktens BK	26	2	6	18	23	62	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lunds BK	Trelleborgs FF
FC Trollhättan	4-3 W	1-2 L
Kristianstad FC	0-1 L	2-0 W
Angelholm	2-0 W	4-1 W
FC Rosengård 1917	2-0 W	4-3 W
Utsiktens BK	1-1 D	2-1 W
BK Olympic	7-1 W	2-0 W
Hässleholms IF	0-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Trelleborgs FF (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lunds BK

LWWDWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FC Trollhättan Sweden 1.div Södra	3-0	4-3	5	3	W
02/10	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
25/09	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
19/09	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
16/09	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
11/09	FC Rosengård 1917 Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
05/09	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
28/08	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	4-1	7-1	8	3	W
22/08	Ariana FC Malmo Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	5-2	3	2	W
14/08	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-3	9	4	L

Trelleborgs FF

LLWLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	2-0	2-0	8	6	W
04/10	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	2-0	2-0	8	5	W
27/09	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	2-0	4-1	5	3	W
20/09	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
17/09	FC Rosengård 1917 Sweden 1.div Södra	3-1	4-3	3	4	W
12/09	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
06/09	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	1-2	11	1	L
30/08	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-1	5	0	W
22/08	FC Trollhättan Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	1-2	8	3	L
16/08	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-2	1-3	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lunds BK vs Trelleborgs FF?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Trelleborgs FF win (38%). Probabilities: Lunds BK 37%, draw 25%, Trelleborgs FF 38%.

How many goals are expected in Lunds BK vs Trelleborgs FF?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Lunds BK 1.59 · Trelleborgs FF 1.63), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lunds BK vs Trelleborgs FF?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.