Football · Iceland Premier League Women · 14/07, 20:00
Prediction: Stjarnan (W) vs Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.82Total
Stjarnan (W)2.47
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)1.35
1X2
Stjarnan (W)
Draw
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Stjarnan (W)
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stjarnan (W)
3–2–1
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stjarnan (W) 1579 · Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 1436
| Stjarnan (W) | Draw | Thor/KA Akureyri (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 20% | 19% |
| Market | 60% | 22% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.82 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stjarnan (W) (rating 1579 vs 1436).
- H2H favours Stjarnan (W): 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stjarnan (W) | Thor/KA Akureyri (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 0.9 | 1.4 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 6.6 | 2.4 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 2.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stjarnan (W) 3–2–1 Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/26 Iceland Cup Women | Thor/KA Akureyri (W) | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Stjarnan (W) |
| 06/05/26 Iceland Premier League Women | Thor/KA Akureyri (W) | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Stjarnan (W) |
| 07/02/26 Iceland Cup Women | Stjarnan (W) | 5-3 HT 2-1 | Thor/KA Akureyri (W) |
| 06/09/25 Iceland Premier League Women | Stjarnan (W) | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Thor/KA Akureyri (W) |
| 24/05/25 Iceland Premier League Women | Thor/KA Akureyri (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Stjarnan (W) |
| 24/03/25 Iceland Cup Women | Thor/KA Akureyri (W) | 1-1 | Stjarnan (W) |
Standings · Iceland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FH Hafnarfjordur (W) | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 31 | 15 | 23 |
| 2 | Breidablik (W) | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 14 | 21 |
| 3 | Stjarnan (W) | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 17 | 17 |
| 5 | Throttur Reykjavik (W) | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 13 |
| 6 | Grindavik/Njardvik (W) | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 12 |
| 7 | Valur Reykjavik (W) | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 10 |
| 8 | Vikingur Reykjavik (W) | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 26 | 10 |
| 9 | Thor/KA Akureyri (W) | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 9 |
| 10 | Fram Reykjavik (W) | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 25 | 7 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Stjarnan (W) | Thor/KA Akureyri (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Valur Reykjavik (W) | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Fram Reykjavik (W) | 3-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Grindavik/Njardvik (W) | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Breidablik (W) | 3-1 W | 1-3 L |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Throttur Reykjavik (W) | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Stjarnan (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stjarnan (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 22/06 | Fram Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 18/06 | Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Cup Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 13/06 | Breidablik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 25/05 | Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 20/05 | Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 15/05 | Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Iceland Cup Women |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | FH Hafnarfjordur (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 06/05 | Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | D |
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 22/06 | Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-4 | 4-6 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 25/05 | Fram Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
2-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 20/05 | Breidablik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | Stjarnan (W) Iceland Cup Women |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/05 | Stjarnan (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 30/04 | Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stjarnan (W) vs Thor/KA Akureyri (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Stjarnan (W) win (61%). Probabilities: Stjarnan (W) 61%, draw 21%, Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 18%.
How many goals are expected in Stjarnan (W) vs Thor/KA Akureyri (W)?
The model expects 3.82 goals (Stjarnan (W) 2.47 · Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 1.35), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Stjarnan (W) vs Thor/KA Akureyri (W)?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.