Football · Norway Division 2 Group 2 · 18/10, 17:00

Prediction: Honefoss vs Junkeren

Team pages: Honefoss · Junkeren

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.42Total

Honefoss3.14

Junkeren1.28

1X2

73% 16% 11%

Honefoss Draw Junkeren

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Honefoss 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDWWLD

Junkeren 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDDWWLWL

Head-to-head

Honefoss 0–1–2 Junkeren (3 last)

Junkeren4-3Honefoss
Honefoss3-3Junkeren
Junkeren2-0Honefoss

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Honefoss 1536 · Junkeren 1489

	Honefoss	Draw	Junkeren
Our model	73%	15%	12%
Market	73%	16%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 4.42 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Honefoss (rating 1536 vs 1489).
H2H favours Junkeren: 2-1-0.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Honefoss	Junkeren
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.5 / 7.3	1.1 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.50

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.90

2 (+2)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Pinn 1.23
X	5.75 → 5.50▼	Pinn 6.65 ★
2	8.00 → 8.00	Pinn 8.35

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:18 +11’	1.22	5.75	8.00
15:43 +4’	1.22	5.50▼	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:04 +25’	1.22	6.44	8.02
21:55 +29’	1.22	6.44	8.03▲
12:02 +17’	1.23▲	6.43▼	8.02▼
15:02 +45’	1.23▲	6.65▲	8.35▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 4.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Honefoss 0–1–2 Junkeren

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Junkeren	4-3 HT 2-2	Honefoss
03/08/19 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Honefoss	3-3 HT 1-3	Junkeren
09/06/19 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Junkeren	2-0	Honefoss

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Eidsvold TF	23	17	3	3	55	20	54
2	Kjelsås	24	17	2	5	56	34	53
3	Levanger	24	16	1	7	56	28	49
4	Honefoss	23	14	4	5	56	33	46
5	Grorud	24	14	4	6	44	24	46
6	Stjørdals/Blink	24	11	3	10	42	41	36
7	Tromsdalen	23	11	2	10	40	38	35
8	Lørenskog	24	10	4	10	38	43	34
9	Junkeren	23	9	4	10	32	39	31
10	Rana FK	24	9	3	12	39	44	30
11	Skeid	24	7	2	15	37	52	23
12	Follo	24	4	5	15	30	51	17
13	Ullensaker/Kisa	24	4	1	19	30	78	13
14	Trygg/Lade	24	2	4	18	30	60	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Honefoss	Junkeren
Skeid	3-4 L	1-0 W
Rana FK	1-0 W	0-2 L
Grorud	1-1 D	1-3 L
Trygg/Lade	3-2 W	2-1 W
Follo	2-1 W	4-1 W
Stjørdals/Blink	2-4 L	2-2 D
Ullensaker/Kisa	9-1 W	3-2 W
Lørenskog	3-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Honefoss (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Honefoss

WWLWWDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
03/10	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	3-4	8	3	L
27/09	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	2-1	5	8	W
19/09	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
06/09	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-0	3-2	4	3	W
30/08	Follo Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	2-1	11	3	W
16/08	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	2-4	7	2	L
08/08	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	3-0	9-1	–	–	W
01/08	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	3-1	9	3	W

Junkeren

LWLDDWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-3	3	4	L
04/10	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
26/09	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
20/09	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-0	3-2	1	4	W
13/09	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
06/09	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
30/08	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	2-2	6	1	D
16/08	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
08/08	Follo Norway Division 2 Group 2	3-0	4-1	5	3	W
02/08	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	1-4	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Honefoss vs Junkeren?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Honefoss win (73%). Probabilities: Honefoss 73%, draw 16%, Junkeren 11%.

How many goals are expected in Honefoss vs Junkeren?

The model expects 4.42 goals (Honefoss 3.14 · Junkeren 1.28), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Honefoss vs Junkeren?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.