Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 25/07, 14:00

Prediction: Baerum vs Valerenga 2

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.49Total

Baerum3.14

Valerenga 21.36

1X2

72% 15% 13%

Baerum Draw Valerenga 2

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Baerum 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLWWWD

Valerenga 2 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLWWWW

Head-to-head

Baerum 2–2–2 Valerenga 2 (6 last)

Valerenga 24-0Baerum
Baerum4-0Valerenga 2
Baerum2-2Valerenga 2

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Baerum 1524 · Valerenga 2 1511

	Baerum	Draw	Valerenga 2
Our model	72%	15%	13%
Market	72%	15%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 4.49 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Baerum	Valerenga 2
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 2	2 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.9	0.5 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.9	2.8 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.25

X6.00

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.85

2 (+2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.82

Under 4.251.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +10’	1.25	6.00	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Baerum 2–2–2 Valerenga 2

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/10/22 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Valerenga 2	4-0 HT 3-0	Baerum
20/06/22 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Baerum	4-0 HT 2-0	Valerenga 2
06/11/21 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Baerum	2-2 HT 0-0	Valerenga 2
21/06/21 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Valerenga 2	2-3 HT 2-1	Baerum
19/10/20 Norway PostNord Cup	Baerum	2-2 HT 1-1	Valerenga 2
21/08/17 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Valerenga 2	4-1 HT 0-1	Baerum

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	12	10	1	1	40	13	31
2	IF Ready	12	7	4	1	31	15	25
3	Heming	12	7	2	3	26	17	23
4	Gamle Oslo	12	7	1	4	43	25	22
5	Baerum	12	7	1	4	37	21	22
6	Valerenga 2	12	7	1	4	26	31	22
7	FK Union Carl Berner	12	7	0	5	21	15	21
8	Frigg	12	6	2	4	29	22	20
9	Nordstrand	12	4	1	7	19	26	13
10	KFUM 2	12	3	2	7	21	36	11
11	Ullern	12	3	1	8	20	30	10
12	Konnerud	12	3	0	9	18	32	9
13	Grei	12	2	1	9	21	42	7
14	Lokomotiv Oslo	12	2	1	9	18	45	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Baerum	Valerenga 2
Frigg	1-1 D	3-3 D
KFUM 2	4-1 W	1-2 L
IF Ready	2-4 L	2-1 W
Asker	2-4 L	1-4 L
FK Union Carl Berner	0-2 L	2-1 W
Lokomotiv Oslo	2-1 W	1-0 W
Heming	1-4 L	1-6 L
Nordstrand	5-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Baerum (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Baerum

WLWLLLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
20/06	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	7-2	7	1	W
14/06	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	4-1	5	4	W
30/05	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	5-0	–	–	W
23/05	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	2-4	6	2	L
16/05	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-3	2-4	2	4	L
10/05	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
02/05	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	3	6	W
25/04	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	1-4	10	1	L
18/04	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	4-0	5-1	6	2	W

Valerenga 2

DLLWLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/06	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
21/06	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
06/06	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	3-2	5	5	W
31/05	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
25/05	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-3	1-6	11	4	L
15/05	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
10/05	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	3-1	3	5	W
02/05	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-5	3-8	2	2	L
25/04	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-3	1-4	7	6	L
18/04	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	3-3	3	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Baerum vs Valerenga 2?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Baerum win (72%). Probabilities: Baerum 72%, draw 15%, Valerenga 2 13%.

How many goals are expected in Baerum vs Valerenga 2?

The model expects 4.49 goals (Baerum 3.14 · Valerenga 2 1.36), with a 52% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Baerum vs Valerenga 2?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.