Football · Norway Division 2 Group 2 · 26/07, 14:00

Prediction: Trygg/Lade vs Eidsvold TF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.01Total

Trygg/Lade1.41

Eidsvold TF2.6

1X2

19% 19% 63%

Trygg/Lade Draw Eidsvold TF

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Trygg/Lade 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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Eidsvold TF 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Trygg/Lade 1401 · Eidsvold TF 1572

	Trygg/Lade	Draw	Eidsvold TF
Our model	19%	19%	62%
Market	19%	19%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 4.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Eidsvold TF (rating 1401 vs 1572).
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Trygg/Lade	Eidsvold TF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 3.1	2.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.7	2.4 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.75

X4.75

21.42

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.53 ★
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 4.92
2	1.42 → 1.42	Pinn 1.44

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:57 +3’	4.75	4.75	1.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:01	5.33	4.84	1.46
16:31 +1’	5.53▲	4.92▲	1.44▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kjelsås	12	9	1	2	27	17	28
2	Levanger	12	9	0	3	25	13	27
3	Eidsvold TF	12	8	2	2	27	11	26
4	Lørenskog	12	8	2	2	25	11	26
5	Honefoss	12	7	2	3	27	17	23
6	Grorud	12	6	2	4	18	13	20
7	Tromsdalen	12	5	1	6	20	26	16
8	Rana FK	11	4	2	5	18	20	14
9	Junkeren	12	4	2	6	16	21	14
10	Skeid	12	4	1	7	20	19	13
11	Stjørdals/Blink	12	3	2	7	18	23	11
12	Ullensaker/Kisa	12	3	0	9	18	39	9
13	Follo	11	2	2	7	13	23	8
14	Trygg/Lade	12	1	1	10	15	34	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Trygg/Lade	Eidsvold TF
Skeid	1-7 L	2-1 W
Stjørdals/Blink	1-2 L	3-0 W
Tromsdalen	1-2 L	2-1 W
Levanger	0-3 L	1-3 L
Ullensaker/Kisa	4-2 W	5-2 W
Honefoss	1-3 L	1-2 L
Kjelsås	1-3 L	4-0 W
Junkeren	2-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 7 L	6 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Eidsvold TF (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Trygg/Lade

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	1-7	1	2	L
21/06	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	1-4	8	6	L
14/06	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-2	2	2	L
31/05	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
24/05	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-2	1-2	9	5	L
16/05	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-3	0-3	6	3	L
10/05	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	3-0	4-2	2	2	W
03/05	Honefoss Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-3	4	2	L
25/04	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	1-3	9	3	L
19/04	Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	2-3	3	6	L

Eidsvold TF

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/06	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
21/06	Honefoss Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-2	6	5	L
14/06	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
30/05	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
25/05	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	3-0	4-1	11	1	W
15/05	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	4-0	5-2	4	4	W
09/05	Follo Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-0	4-1	3	3	W
02/05	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
25/04	Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-0	10	2	W
19/04	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	3-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Trygg/Lade vs Eidsvold TF?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Eidsvold TF win (63%). Probabilities: Trygg/Lade 19%, draw 19%, Eidsvold TF 63%.

How many goals are expected in Trygg/Lade vs Eidsvold TF?

The model expects 4.01 goals (Trygg/Lade 1.41 · Eidsvold TF 2.6), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Trygg/Lade vs Eidsvold TF?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.