Football · Norway Division 2 Group 2 · 25/07, 14:00

Prediction: Honefoss vs Skeid

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

Honefoss2.03

Skeid1.31

1X2

54% 23% 24%

Honefoss Draw Skeid

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Honefoss 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLDLWW

Skeid 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLDLW

Head-to-head

Honefoss 0–1–0 Skeid (1 last)

Honefoss2-2Skeid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Honefoss 1548 · Skeid 1478

	Honefoss	Draw	Skeid
Our model	53%	23%	24%
Market	54%	22%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Honefoss (rating 1548 vs 1478).
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Honefoss	Skeid
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.4	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.7	1.9 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.10

23.70

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.96

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.71
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 4.02 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:05 +7’	1.67	4.10	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:13	1.71	4.06	4.02

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Honefoss 0–1–0 Skeid

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Europe Friendlies	Honefoss	2-2 HT 2-0	Skeid

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kjelsås	12	9	1	2	27	17	28
2	Levanger	12	9	0	3	25	13	27
3	Eidsvold TF	12	8	2	2	27	11	26
4	Lørenskog	12	8	2	2	25	11	26
5	Honefoss	12	7	2	3	27	17	23
6	Grorud	12	6	2	4	18	13	20
7	Tromsdalen	12	5	1	6	20	26	16
8	Rana FK	11	4	2	5	18	20	14
9	Junkeren	12	4	2	6	16	21	14
10	Skeid	12	4	1	7	20	19	13
11	Stjørdals/Blink	12	3	2	7	18	23	11
12	Ullensaker/Kisa	12	3	0	9	18	39	9
13	Follo	11	2	2	7	13	23	8
14	Trygg/Lade	12	1	1	10	15	34	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Honefoss	Skeid
Kjelsås	3-1 W	0-1 L
Eidsvold TF	2-1 W	1-2 L
Lørenskog	1-1 D	1-2 L
Grorud	2-3 L	0-1 L
Stjørdals/Blink	3-2 W	1-0 W
Tromsdalen	3-0 W	0-2 L
Trygg/Lade	3-1 W	7-1 W
Levanger	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Honefoss (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Honefoss

WLWWWLDLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	3-1	5	4	W
21/06	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
14/06	Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-2	3-4	7	1	L
31/05	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
23/05	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	2-3	6	6	L
14/05	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	3-2	8	4	W
10/05	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
03/05	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	3-1	3	2	W
26/04	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-1	8	2	L
18/04	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	3-0	5	1	W

Skeid

LLLWLWLDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-1	7-1	2	2	W
20/06	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
14/06	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-2	3-3	2	2	D
31/05	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
23/05	Follo Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-0	2-0	4	5	W
16/05	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
09/05	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
02/05	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
24/04	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
18/04	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-2	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Honefoss vs Skeid?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Honefoss win (54%). Probabilities: Honefoss 54%, draw 23%, Skeid 24%.

How many goals are expected in Honefoss vs Skeid?

The model expects 3.34 goals (Honefoss 2.03 · Skeid 1.31), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Honefoss vs Skeid?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.