Football · Norway Division 2 Group 2 · 26/09, 14:00

Prediction: Kjelsås vs Follo

Team pages: Kjelsås · Follo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.88Total

Kjelsås2.91

Follo0.96

1X2

76% 15% 9%

Kjelsås Draw Follo

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Kjelsås 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWWLWL

Follo 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LDLLLDLWLL

Head-to-head

Kjelsås 4–2–0 Follo (6 last)

Follo1-4Kjelsås
Kjelsås3-1Follo
Follo1-3Kjelsås
Follo0-0Kjelsås
Kjelsås2-0Follo
Follo2-2Kjelsås

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kjelsås 1539 · Follo 1429

	Kjelsås	Draw	Follo
Our model	76%	15%	9%
Market	77%	14%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 3.88 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kjelsås (rating 1539 vs 1429).
H2H favours Kjelsås: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kjelsås	Follo
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.5	1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.6	2.3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.18

X6.25

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)2.00

2 (+2.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.18	Pinn 1.21
X	6.25 → 6.25	Pinn 6.56 ★
2	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 9.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:33 +10’	1.18	6.25	10.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:54 +7’	1.21	6.56	8.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kjelsås 4–2–0 Follo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/06/26 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Follo	1-4 HT 1-3	Kjelsås
13/09/25 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Kjelsås	3-1 HT 3-1	Follo
26/07/25 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Follo	1-3 HT 0-1	Kjelsås
07/09/24 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Follo	0-0 HT 0-0	Kjelsås
04/05/24 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Kjelsås	2-0 HT 1-0	Follo
22/05/23 Norway Cup	Follo	2-2 HT 0-0	Kjelsås

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Eidsvold TF	20	15	3	2	48	16	48
2	Levanger	20	15	0	5	51	21	45
3	Kjelsås	20	14	1	5	47	29	43
4	Honefoss	20	13	3	4	51	28	42
5	Grorud	20	11	4	5	34	20	37
6	Lørenskog	20	9	3	8	29	32	30
7	Tromsdalen	20	9	2	9	34	34	29
8	Junkeren	20	8	4	8	29	33	28
9	Stjørdals/Blink	20	8	3	9	34	38	27
10	Rana FK	20	7	3	10	34	38	24
11	Skeid	20	5	2	13	27	43	17
12	Follo	20	3	4	13	23	43	13
13	Ullensaker/Kisa	20	3	1	16	25	67	10
14	Trygg/Lade	20	2	3	15	23	47	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kjelsås	Follo
Tromsdalen	3-1 W	1-0 W
Junkeren	2-0 W	1-4 L
Eidsvold TF	0-1 L	0-1 L
Levanger	4-1 W	2-5 L
Rana FK	3-2 W	3-3 D
Honefoss	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Kjelsås (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kjelsås

WLWWLWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-1	2-3	7	7	L
13/09	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	3-0	5-0	3	3	W
05/09	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	1-4	5	5	L
30/08	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
16/08	Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
08/08	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
02/08	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	3-1	4-1	5	3	W
26/07	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
27/06	Honefoss Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	1-3	5	4	L
20/06	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	3-0	2	1	W

Follo

LDLLLDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-1	2-5	7	1	L
05/09	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
30/08	Honefoss Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
26/08	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	3-3	–	–	D
16/08	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-3	7	6	L
08/08	Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-3	1-4	6	3	L
02/08	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
25/07	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/06	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-2	7	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kjelsås vs Follo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kjelsås win (76%). Probabilities: Kjelsås 76%, draw 15%, Follo 9%.

How many goals are expected in Kjelsås vs Follo?

The model expects 3.88 goals (Kjelsås 2.91 · Follo 0.96), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Kjelsås vs Follo?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.