Football · Norway Division 2 Group 2 · 27/09, 14:00

Prediction: Lørenskog vs Skeid

Team pages: Lørenskog · Skeid

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Lørenskog1.91

Skeid1.41

1X2

48% 24% 28%

Lørenskog Draw Skeid

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Lørenskog 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLLDWL

Skeid 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLDWLL

Head-to-head

Lørenskog 2–2 Skeid (4 last)

Skeid1-2Lørenskog
Skeid0-3Lørenskog
Skeid1-0Lørenskog
Lørenskog1-4Skeid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lørenskog 1458 · Skeid 1426

	Lørenskog	Draw	Skeid
Our model	48%	24%	28%
Market	49%	23%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lørenskog	Skeid
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.2	1.5 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.7 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.5	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.80

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.87
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.87
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.35 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:33 +1’	1.83	3.80	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:59 +26’	1.92	3.82	3.24
16:54 +130’	1.87▼	3.87▲	3.35▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lørenskog 2–0–2 Skeid

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Skeid	1-2 HT 0-0	Lørenskog
06/02/16 Club Friendly List	Skeid	0-3 HT 0-1	Lørenskog
15/09/14 Norway Division 2 Group 4	Skeid	1-0 HT 0-0	Lørenskog
31/05/14 Norway Division 2 Group 4	Lørenskog	1-4 HT 1-2	Skeid

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Eidsvold TF	20	15	3	2	48	16	48
2	Levanger	20	15	0	5	51	21	45
3	Kjelsås	20	14	1	5	47	29	43
4	Honefoss	20	13	3	4	51	28	42
5	Grorud	20	11	4	5	34	20	37
6	Lørenskog	20	9	3	8	29	32	30
7	Tromsdalen	20	9	2	9	34	34	29
8	Junkeren	20	8	4	8	29	33	28
9	Stjørdals/Blink	20	8	3	9	34	38	27
10	Rana FK	20	7	3	10	34	38	24
11	Skeid	20	5	2	13	27	43	17
12	Follo	20	3	4	13	23	43	13
13	Ullensaker/Kisa	20	3	1	16	25	67	10
14	Trygg/Lade	20	2	3	15	23	47	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lørenskog	Skeid
Rana FK	1-0 W	0-2 L
Junkeren	1-1 D	0-1 L
Levanger	0-5 L	0-5 L
Tromsdalen	0-2 L	0-6 L
Honefoss	1-3 L	1-3 L
Grorud	1-0 W	1-5 L
Trygg/Lade	4-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Lørenskog (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lørenskog

WWLLLLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
13/09	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
06/09	Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
30/08	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-2	0-5	5	1	L
15/08	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-4	1-7	4	1	L
09/08	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
01/08	Honefoss Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	1-3	6	3	L
25/07	Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
27/06	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-0	0	2	W
21/06	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-1	4-1	5	6	W

Skeid

LWLLLLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-2	0-6	–	–	L
13/09	Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
05/09	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-1	4-1	4	5	W
30/08	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/08	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-4	0-5	5	2	L
09/08	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
01/08	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-3	1-5	3	3	L
25/07	Honefoss Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	1-3	4	1	L
28/06	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-1	7-1	2	2	W
20/06	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	1-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lørenskog vs Skeid?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lørenskog win (48%). Probabilities: Lørenskog 48%, draw 24%, Skeid 28%.

How many goals are expected in Lørenskog vs Skeid?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Lørenskog 1.91 · Skeid 1.41), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lørenskog vs Skeid?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.