Football · Norway Division 2 Group 2 · 27/09, 17:30

Prediction: Honefoss vs Tromsdalen

Team pages: Honefoss · Tromsdalen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

Honefoss2.17

Tromsdalen1.36

1X2

55% 22% 23%

Honefoss Draw Tromsdalen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Honefoss 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWWDW

Tromsdalen 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLDWWLLWLW

Head-to-head

Honefoss 1–2 Tromsdalen (3 last)

Tromsdalen0-3Honefoss
Tromsdalen5-1Honefoss
Honefoss2-3Tromsdalen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Honefoss 1608 · Tromsdalen 1510

	Honefoss	Draw	Tromsdalen
Our model	55%	22%	23%
Market	55%	22%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Honefoss (rating 1608 vs 1510).
H2H favours Tromsdalen: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Honefoss	Tromsdalen
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1.3	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.4	1.5 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.10

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.70 ★
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:10 +31’	1.61	4.10	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:55 +104’	1.75	4.06	3.64
18:33 +43’	1.70▼	4.10▲	3.82▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Honefoss 1–0–2 Tromsdalen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Tromsdalen	0-3 HT 0-1	Honefoss
07/09/25 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Tromsdalen	5-1 HT 3-1	Honefoss
27/04/25 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Honefoss	2-3 HT 0-2	Tromsdalen

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Eidsvold TF	20	15	3	2	48	16	48
2	Levanger	20	15	0	5	51	21	45
3	Kjelsås	20	14	1	5	47	29	43
4	Honefoss	20	13	3	4	51	28	42
5	Grorud	20	11	4	5	34	20	37
6	Lørenskog	20	9	3	8	29	32	30
7	Tromsdalen	20	9	2	9	34	34	29
8	Junkeren	20	8	4	8	29	33	28
9	Stjørdals/Blink	20	8	3	9	34	38	27
10	Rana FK	20	7	3	10	34	38	24
11	Skeid	20	5	2	13	27	43	17
12	Follo	20	3	4	13	23	43	13
13	Ullensaker/Kisa	20	3	1	16	25	67	10
14	Trygg/Lade	20	2	3	15	23	47	9

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Honefoss	Tromsdalen
Grorud	1-1 D	0-2 L
Trygg/Lade	3-2 W	3-1 W
Follo	2-1 W	0-1 L
Stjørdals/Blink	2-4 L	2-4 L
Ullensaker/Kisa	9-1 W	2-1 W
Lørenskog	3-1 W	2-0 W
Skeid	3-1 W	6-0 W
Kjelsås	3-1 W	1-3 L
Eidsvold TF	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Honefoss (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Honefoss

WWWWWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
06/09	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-0	3-2	4	3	W
30/08	Follo Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	2-1	11	3	W
16/08	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	2-4	7	2	L
08/08	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	3-0	9-1	–	–	W
01/08	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	3-1	9	3	W
25/07	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-1	3-1	6	1	W
27/06	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	3-1	5	4	W
21/06	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	2-1	4	5	W

Tromsdalen

LLDWWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-0	6-0	–	–	W
16/09	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
13/09	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
05/09	Follo Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
30/08	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
09/08	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
02/08	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
25/07	Follo Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
26/06	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
20/06	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-3	2-4	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Honefoss vs Tromsdalen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Honefoss win (55%). Probabilities: Honefoss 55%, draw 22%, Tromsdalen 23%.

How many goals are expected in Honefoss vs Tromsdalen?

The model expects 3.53 goals (Honefoss 2.17 · Tromsdalen 1.36), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Honefoss vs Tromsdalen?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.