Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 18/10, 15:00

Prediction: Dinamo Tbilisi vs FC Spaeri

Team pages: Dinamo Tbilisi · FC Spaeri

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

Dinamo Tbilisi1.96

FC Spaeri1.19

1X2

54% 24% 22%

Dinamo Tbilisi Draw FC Spaeri

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Dinamo Tbilisi 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDWWWL

FC Spaeri 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

DLDLLDDLLD

Head-to-head

Dinamo Tbilisi 3–1–0 FC Spaeri (4 last)

FC Spaeri1-2Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi2-1FC Spaeri
FC Spaeri1-2Dinamo Tbilisi
FC Spaeri2-2Dinamo Tbilisi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dinamo Tbilisi 1537 · FC Spaeri 1417

	Dinamo Tbilisi	Draw	FC Spaeri
Our model	54%	24%	22%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dinamo Tbilisi (rating 1537 vs 1417).
H2H favours Dinamo Tbilisi: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dinamo Tbilisi	FC Spaeri
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.8 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.4	2.9 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.80

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.65▲	Bet365 1.65
X	4.10 → 3.80▼	Pinn 4.07
2	5.00 → 4.10▼	Pinn 5.11 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
08:01 +16’	1.50	4.10	5.00
14:17 +7’	1.65▲	3.80▼	4.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:12 +58’	1.59	3.92	4.79
09:32 +35’	1.58▼	3.95▲	4.83▲
13:11 +26’	1.57▼	4.07▲	5.11▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dinamo Tbilisi 3–1–0 FC Spaeri

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Spaeri	1-2 HT 1-0	Dinamo Tbilisi
07/05/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dinamo Tbilisi	2-1 HT 2-0	FC Spaeri
07/03/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Spaeri	1-2 HT 0-2	Dinamo Tbilisi
05/12/24 Georgia Cup	FC Spaeri	2-2 HT 1-0	Dinamo Tbilisi

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dinamo Batumi	29	15	8	6	50	37	53
2	FC Rustavi	29	15	7	7	36	24	52
3	Dinamo Tbilisi	29	14	9	6	48	32	51
4	FC Iberia 1999	28	15	4	9	40	31	49
5	Dila Gori	28	12	4	12	39	33	40
6	Samgurali	29	11	5	13	43	52	38
7	Torpedo Kutaisi	29	9	10	10	46	38	37
8	FC Gagra	29	6	11	12	26	43	29
9	FC Spaeri	29	5	11	13	38	49	26
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	29	2	11	16	21	48	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dinamo Tbilisi	FC Spaeri
Dinamo Batumi	0-1 L	0-3 L
FC Iberia 1999	2-1 W	0-1 L
Samgurali	3-2 W	3-4 L
FC Gagra	4-0 W	1-1 D
Meshakhte Tkibuli	0-0 D	2-2 D
Torpedo Kutaisi	1-1 D	3-3 D
Dila Gori	2-1 W	1-4 L
FC Rustavi	0-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 4 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Dinamo Tbilisi (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dinamo Tbilisi

WWLWDDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
04/10	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
19/09	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-2	3-2	2	5	W
14/09	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	3-0	4-0	5	5	W
10/09	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
06/09	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
31/08	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
15/08	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-3	0-3	3	3	L
09/08	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	2-1	4	1	W
23/06	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	2-1	9	3	W

FC Spaeri

DLDLLDDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	3-3	1	6	D
21/09	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-4	1-4	12	1	L
13/09	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
09/09	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
05/09	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	2-2	7	3	D
30/08	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-3	0-3	4	5	L
22/08	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	3-1	3-4	7	4	L
17/08	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
09/08	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-2	6	1	L
22/06	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	7	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dinamo Tbilisi vs FC Spaeri?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dinamo Tbilisi win (54%). Probabilities: Dinamo Tbilisi 54%, draw 24%, FC Spaeri 22%.

How many goals are expected in Dinamo Tbilisi vs FC Spaeri?

The model expects 3.15 goals (Dinamo Tbilisi 1.96 · FC Spaeri 1.19), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dinamo Tbilisi vs FC Spaeri?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.