Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 17/10, 17:00

Prediction: FC Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi

Team pages: FC Gagra · Dinamo Batumi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

FC Gagra0.89

Dinamo Batumi1.77

1X2

18% 24% 58%

FC Gagra Draw Dinamo Batumi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Gagra 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

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Dinamo Batumi 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Gagra 2–3–1 Dinamo Batumi (6 last)

Dinamo Batumi2-2FC Gagra
FC Gagra1-2Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi1-1FC Gagra
FC Gagra4-1Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi1-2FC Gagra
FC Gagra1-1Dinamo Batumi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Gagra 1452 · Dinamo Batumi 1582

	FC Gagra	Draw	Dinamo Batumi
Our model	18%	25%	57%
Market	19%	23%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dinamo Batumi (rating 1452 vs 1582).
H2H favours FC Gagra: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Gagra	Dinamo Batumi
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.6	2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	1.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.7	3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.75

X4.00

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.90 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.05
2	1.53 → 1.55▲	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
07:43 +29’	4.75	4.00	1.53
09:05 +8’	4.75	4.00	1.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:11 +9’	5.43	3.87	1.54
09:17 +5’	5.73▲	3.95▲	1.50▼
11:43 +11’	5.73	4.00▲	1.50▼
13:16 +90’	5.90▲	4.05▲	1.48▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Gagra 2–3–1 Dinamo Batumi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dinamo Batumi	2-2 HT 2-0	FC Gagra
06/05/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gagra	1-2 HT 0-1	Dinamo Batumi
07/03/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dinamo Batumi	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Gagra
26/10/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gagra	4-1 HT 1-0	Dinamo Batumi
17/08/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dinamo Batumi	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Gagra
03/05/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gagra	1-1 HT 1-0	Dinamo Batumi

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dinamo Batumi	29	15	8	6	50	37	53
2	FC Rustavi	29	15	7	7	36	24	52
3	Dinamo Tbilisi	29	14	9	6	48	32	51
4	FC Iberia 1999	28	15	4	9	40	31	49
5	Dila Gori	28	12	4	12	39	33	40
6	Samgurali	29	11	5	13	43	52	38
7	Torpedo Kutaisi	29	9	10	10	46	38	37
8	FC Gagra	29	6	11	12	26	43	29
9	FC Spaeri	29	5	11	13	38	49	26
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	29	2	11	16	21	48	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Gagra	Dinamo Batumi
Samgurali	0-3 L	4-0 W
Meshakhte Tkibuli	1-1 D	1-0 W
Dinamo Tbilisi	0-4 L	1-0 W
Torpedo Kutaisi	1-1 D	3-2 W
Dila Gori	0-1 L	2-2 D
FC Iberia 1999	2-0 W	2-0 W
FC Rustavi	0-3 L	1-0 W
FC Spaeri	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	7 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Dinamo Batumi (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Gagra

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-3	7	1	L
19/09	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
14/09	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-3	0-4	4	5	L
10/09	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
05/09	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
31/08	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
22/08	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-3	3	4	L
17/08	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	10	5	D
08/08	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	2-2	5	1	D
24/06	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	5	8	D

Dinamo Batumi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
20/09	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	3-2	9	9	W
13/09	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
09/09	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
04/09	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-0	3	8	W
30/08	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	3-0	3-0	3	5	W
21/08	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
16/08	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	3-0	4-0	5	4	W
08/08	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-0	2-2	6	1	D
23/06	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dinamo Batumi win (58%). Probabilities: FC Gagra 18%, draw 24%, Dinamo Batumi 58%.

How many goals are expected in FC Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi?

The model expects 2.66 goals (FC Gagra 0.89 · Dinamo Batumi 1.77), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.