Football · Norway Division 2 Group 1 · 03/10, 15:00

Prediction: Notodden vs Eik Tønsberg

Team pages: Notodden · Eik Tønsberg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Notodden2.26

Eik Tønsberg0.63

1X2

75% 17% 9%

Notodden Draw Eik Tønsberg

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Notodden 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLDWDWL

Eik Tønsberg 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Notodden 2–3–1 Eik Tønsberg (6 last)

Eik Tønsberg0-1Notodden
Notodden0-1Eik Tønsberg
Eik Tønsberg1-1Notodden
Eik Tønsberg0-0Notodden
Eik Tønsberg1-2Notodden
Notodden0-0Eik Tønsberg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Notodden 1545 · Eik Tønsberg 1397

	Notodden	Draw	Eik Tønsberg
Our model	74%	18%	8%
Market	75%	15%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Notodden (rating 1545 vs 1397).
H2H favours Notodden: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Notodden	Eik Tønsberg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.6	1.4 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.6	2.6 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.20

X6.00

29.50

Line ⓘ

Over 31.78

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Pinn 1.43 ★
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:24 +5’	1.20	6.00	9.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:27 +2’	1.43	4.58	5.69

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Notodden 2–3–1 Eik Tønsberg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Eik Tønsberg	0-1 HT 0-1	Notodden
18/10/25 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Notodden	0-1 HT 0-1	Eik Tønsberg
05/04/25 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Eik Tønsberg	1-1 HT 0-0	Notodden
08/02/25 Europe Friendlies	Eik Tønsberg	0-0 HT 0-0	Notodden
06/07/24 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Eik Tønsberg	1-2 HT 0-0	Notodden
14/04/24 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Notodden	0-0 HT 0-0	Eik Tønsberg

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Jerv	21	16	3	2	44	18	51
2	Mjondalen	21	13	2	6	39	28	41
3	Sotra	21	12	3	6	45	22	39
4	Brattvåg	20	12	3	5	41	24	39
5	Bjarg	20	12	2	6	42	26	38
6	Notodden	21	10	5	6	30	17	35
7	Kvik Halden FK	20	9	4	7	28	24	31
8	Træff	20	8	6	6	36	36	30
9	Arendal	20	7	5	8	28	34	26
10	Pors Grenland	21	6	5	10	24	30	23
11	Sandviken	21	6	4	11	32	45	22
12	Lysekloster	21	3	5	13	23	45	14
13	Vidar	21	2	4	15	19	56	10
14	Eik Tønsberg	20	2	1	17	21	47	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Notodden	Eik Tønsberg
Træff	1-1 D	0-1 L
Brattvåg	0-3 L	1-3 L
Sandviken	1-0 W	0-2 L
Mjondalen	1-0 W	1-2 L
Sotra	1-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Notodden (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Notodden

WWWWLDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Jerv Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
20/09	Arendal Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-1	4-1	2	1	W
13/09	Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Lysekloster Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
30/08	Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
15/08	Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	0-3	8	2	L
08/08	Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
01/08	Mjondalen Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
25/07	Sotra Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
27/06	Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-0	4-0	3	4	W

Eik Tønsberg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Bjarg Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
19/09	Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-3	1-3	–	–	L
12/09	Pors Grenland Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	2-0	8	1	W
05/09	Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
30/08	Sotra Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-2	1-3	3	4	L
15/08	Mjondalen Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	1-2	7	1	L
09/08	Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	0-1	10	4	L
02/08	Vidar Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	3-4	5	4	L
25/07	Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-2	5-6	5	6	L
27/06	Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-2	1-3	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Notodden vs Eik Tønsberg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Notodden win (75%). Probabilities: Notodden 75%, draw 17%, Eik Tønsberg 9%.

How many goals are expected in Notodden vs Eik Tønsberg?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Notodden 2.26 · Eik Tønsberg 0.63), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Notodden vs Eik Tønsberg?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.