Football · Norway Division 2 Group 1 · 10/10, 19:00
Prediction: Jerv vs Arendal
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.31Total
Jerv2.37
Arendal0.93
1X2
Jerv
Draw
Arendal
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Jerv
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Arendal
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Jerv
2–3–1
Arendal
(6 last)
- Arendal1-2Jerv
- Arendal3-1Jerv
- Arendal2-2Jerv
- Jerv1-1Arendal
- Jerv2-2Arendal
- Jerv3-0Arendal
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jerv 1559 · Arendal 1486
| Jerv | Draw | Arendal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| Market | 69% | 18% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jerv (rating 1559 vs 1486).
- H2H favours Jerv: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Jerv | Arendal | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.1 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.2 | 2.8 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 2.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jerv 2–3–1 Arendal
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Norway Division 2 Group 1 | Arendal | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Jerv |
| 25/10/25 Norway Division 2 Group 1 | Arendal | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Jerv |
| 13/08/25 Norway Cup | Arendal | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Jerv |
| 16/05/25 Norway Division 2 Group 1 | Jerv | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Arendal |
| 07/02/25 Europe Friendlies | Jerv | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Arendal |
| 14/09/24 Norway Division 2 Group 1 | Jerv | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Arendal |
Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jerv | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 47 | 21 | 52 |
| 2 | Brattvåg | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 28 | 45 |
| 3 | Bjarg | 22 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 47 | 28 | 44 |
| 4 | Mjondalen | 22 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 43 | 28 | 44 |
| 5 | Sotra | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 47 | 25 | 39 |
| 6 | Notodden | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 20 | 35 |
| 7 | Kvik Halden FK | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 34 | 27 | 34 |
| 8 | Træff | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 36 | 44 | 30 |
| 9 | Pors Grenland | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 28 | 31 | 26 |
| 10 | Arendal | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 30 | 38 | 26 |
| 11 | Sandviken | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 33 | 45 | 25 |
| 12 | Lysekloster | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 48 | 15 |
| 13 | Eik Tønsberg | 22 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 24 | 50 | 10 |
| 14 | Vidar | 22 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 60 | 10 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Jerv | Arendal |
|---|---|---|
| Lysekloster | 3-3 D | 2-1 W |
| Notodden | 1-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Kvik Halden FK | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Brattvåg | 3-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Pors Grenland | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Sandviken | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Vidar | 4-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 0 L | 4 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Jerv (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jerv
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Lysekloster Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
2-0 | 3-3 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 26/09 | Notodden Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Mjondalen Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Pors Grenland Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 08/08 | Vidar Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
2-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 26/07 | Lysekloster Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 12 | 2 | L |
Arendal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 27/09 | Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 20/09 | Notodden Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 13/09 | Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Bjarg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Lysekloster Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 15/08 | Vidar Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Pors Grenland Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Sotra Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-3 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | Vidar Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 4-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jerv vs Arendal?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Jerv win (69%). Probabilities: Jerv 69%, draw 19%, Arendal 13%.
How many goals are expected in Jerv vs Arendal?
The model expects 3.31 goals (Jerv 2.37 · Arendal 0.93), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Jerv vs Arendal?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.