Football · Norway Division 2 Group 1 · 04/10, 17:00

Prediction: Lysekloster vs Jerv

Team pages: Lysekloster · Jerv

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Lysekloster0.83

Jerv2.38

1X2

11% 18% 71%

Lysekloster Draw Jerv

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Lysekloster 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLLLL

Jerv 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLLWDWWWWW

Head-to-head

Lysekloster 4–1 Jerv (5 last)

Jerv1-2Lysekloster
Jerv0-1Lysekloster
Lysekloster3-0Jerv
Lysekloster3-0Jerv
Jerv3-1Lysekloster

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lysekloster 1400 · Jerv 1570

	Lysekloster	Draw	Jerv
Our model	10%	19%	71%
Market	11%	17%	72%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jerv (rating 1400 vs 1570).
H2H favours Lysekloster: 4-0-1.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lysekloster	Jerv
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.2	2.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6	3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

18.00

X5.25

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.90

2 (-1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
X	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.55 ★
2	1.25 → 1.25	Pinn 1.32

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:52 +7’	8.00	5.25	1.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:02 +57’	6.59	5.55	1.32

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lysekloster 4–0–1 Jerv

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Jerv	1-2 HT 1-1	Lysekloster
24/08/25 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Jerv	0-1 HT 0-0	Lysekloster
29/06/25 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Lysekloster	3-0 HT 2-0	Jerv
07/09/24 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Lysekloster	3-0 HT 2-0	Jerv
23/06/24 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Jerv	3-1 HT 2-0	Lysekloster

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Jerv	21	16	3	2	44	18	51
2	Bjarg	22	14	2	6	47	28	44
3	Brattvåg	21	13	3	5	44	26	42
4	Mjondalen	21	13	2	6	39	28	41
5	Sotra	21	12	3	6	45	22	39
6	Notodden	22	10	5	7	31	20	35
7	Kvik Halden FK	22	10	4	8	34	27	34
8	Træff	21	8	6	7	36	40	30
9	Pors Grenland	22	7	5	10	28	31	26
10	Arendal	21	7	5	9	30	37	26
11	Sandviken	21	6	4	11	32	45	22
12	Lysekloster	21	3	5	13	23	45	14
13	Eik Tønsberg	22	3	1	18	24	50	10
14	Vidar	22	2	4	16	20	60	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lysekloster	Jerv
Sandviken	2-3 L	2-2 D
Pors Grenland	0-2 L	1-0 W
Mjondalen	2-3 L	3-0 W
Notodden	0-3 L	1-0 W
Kvik Halden FK	0-1 L	2-0 W
Brattvåg	1-3 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 6 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Jerv (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lysekloster

DWLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
20/09	Pors Grenland Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Mjondalen Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-1	2-3	–	–	L
06/09	Notodden Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
30/08	Arendal Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	1-2	8	0	L
15/08	Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
09/08	Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	1-3	–	–	L
01/08	Bjarg Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
26/07	Jerv Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
27/06	Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	1-1	–	–	D

Jerv

WLLWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Notodden Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
19/09	Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
13/09	Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	3-1	8	2	W
05/09	Mjondalen Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-0	3-0	2	2	W
30/08	Pors Grenland Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	1-0	10	2	W
16/08	Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	2-2	7	1	D
08/08	Vidar Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	4-0	8	4	W
02/08	Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-2	2-3	6	4	L
26/07	Lysekloster Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	1-2	12	2	L
28/06	Sotra Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	3-1	3	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lysekloster vs Jerv?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Jerv win (71%). Probabilities: Lysekloster 11%, draw 18%, Jerv 71%.

How many goals are expected in Lysekloster vs Jerv?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Lysekloster 0.83 · Jerv 2.38), with a 56% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lysekloster vs Jerv?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.