Football · Norway Division 2 Group 1 · 18/10, 16:00

Prediction: Jerv vs Sotra

Team pages: Jerv · Sotra

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Jerv1.92

Sotra1.27

1X2

52% 23% 24%

Jerv Draw Sotra

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Jerv 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWWWDD

Sotra 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLWLW

Head-to-head

Jerv 3–1–1 Sotra (5 last)

Sotra1-3Jerv
Jerv2-0Sotra
Sotra2-1Jerv
Jerv1-1Sotra
Sotra0-2Jerv

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jerv 1572 · Sotra 1570

	Jerv	Draw	Sotra
Our model	52%	24%	24%
Market	52%	23%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Jerv: 3-1-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jerv	Sotra
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.1	2.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	1.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	80/0/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	2.7 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.90

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.75
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.92 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:05 +10’	1.70	3.90	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +72’	1.75	3.77	3.90
20:30 +61’	1.75	3.77	3.92▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jerv 3–1–1 Sotra

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Sotra	1-3 HT 1-1	Jerv
05/10/25 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Jerv	2-0 HT 1-0	Sotra
08/06/25 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Sotra	2-1 HT 2-0	Jerv
07/07/24 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Jerv	1-1 HT 0-1	Sotra
27/04/24 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Sotra	0-2 HT 0-2	Jerv

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Jerv	23	16	5	2	49	23	53
2	Mjondalen	24	16	2	6	47	29	50
3	Brattvåg	23	15	3	5	50	29	48
4	Bjarg	23	15	2	6	52	30	47
5	Sotra	23	13	3	7	50	25	42
6	Notodden	24	10	5	9	36	29	35
7	Kvik Halden FK	24	10	4	10	34	32	34
8	Træff	23	9	6	8	37	44	33
9	Arendal	24	8	6	10	35	40	30
10	Pors Grenland	24	8	5	11	32	35	29
11	Sandviken	24	7	4	13	34	49	25
12	Lysekloster	23	4	6	13	29	49	18
13	Vidar	24	3	4	17	23	63	13
14	Eik Tønsberg	24	3	1	20	25	56	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jerv	Sotra
Arendal	2-2 D	3-0 W
Kvik Halden FK	2-0 W	3-0 W
Brattvåg	3-1 W	2-3 L
Mjondalen	3-0 W	1-3 L
Pors Grenland	1-0 W	3-2 W
Sandviken	2-2 D	3-0 W
Vidar	4-0 W	3-0 W
Træff	2-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	6 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sotra (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jerv

LWDWWWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Arendal Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
04/10	Lysekloster Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-0	3-3	2	3	D
26/09	Notodden Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
19/09	Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
13/09	Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	3-1	8	2	W
05/09	Mjondalen Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-0	3-0	2	2	W
30/08	Pors Grenland Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	1-0	10	2	W
16/08	Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	2-2	7	1	D
08/08	Vidar Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	4-0	8	4	W
02/08	Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-2	2-3	6	4	L

Sotra

WWWWWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1	3-0	3-0	6	2	W
04/10	Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
26/09	Pors Grenland Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-1	3-2	3	0	W
19/09	Mjondalen Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-3	1-3	4	3	L
12/09	Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
05/09	Vidar Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
30/08	Eik Tønsberg Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-1	3-1	7	4	W
16/08	Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	Bjarg Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
02/08	Arendal Norway Division 2 Group 1	3-0	3-0	12	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jerv vs Sotra?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jerv win (52%). Probabilities: Jerv 52%, draw 23%, Sotra 24%.

How many goals are expected in Jerv vs Sotra?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Jerv 1.92 · Sotra 1.27), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Jerv vs Sotra?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.