Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 17/10, 13:30

Prediction: Samgurali vs Meshakhte Tkibuli

Team pages: Samgurali · Meshakhte Tkibuli

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Samgurali1.77

Meshakhte Tkibuli0.9

1X2

57% 24% 18%

Samgurali Draw Meshakhte Tkibuli

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Samgurali 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLWDLLLLW

Meshakhte Tkibuli 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLWDDLDL

Head-to-head

Samgurali 3–3–0 Meshakhte Tkibuli (6 last)

Meshakhte Tkibuli1-2Samgurali
Samgurali0-0Meshakhte Tkibuli
Samgurali3-1Meshakhte Tkibuli
Meshakhte Tkibuli0-0Samgurali
Samgurali5-0Meshakhte Tkibuli
Meshakhte Tkibuli1-1Samgurali

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Samgurali 1476 · Meshakhte Tkibuli 1438

	Samgurali	Draw	Meshakhte Tkibuli
Our model	57%	25%	18%
Market	58%	23%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Samgurali: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Samgurali	Meshakhte Tkibuli
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.4	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 4.3	1.6 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.55

X3.90

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.55▲	Pinn 1.58
X	4.00 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90
2	5.00 → 4.75▼	Pinn 5.09 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
09:02 +6’	1.50	4.00	5.00
21:49 +61’	1.55▲	3.90▼	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:41 +28’	1.58	3.80	5.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Samgurali 3–3–0 Meshakhte Tkibuli

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Meshakhte Tkibuli	1-2 HT 1-1	Samgurali
01/08/26 Georgia Cup	Samgurali	0-0 HT 0-0	Meshakhte Tkibuli
06/05/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Samgurali	3-1 HT 0-0	Meshakhte Tkibuli
08/03/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Meshakhte Tkibuli	0-0 HT 0-0	Samgurali
19/10/17 Georgia First League	Samgurali	5-0 HT 3-0	Meshakhte Tkibuli
11/08/17 Georgia First League	Meshakhte Tkibuli	1-1 HT 0-1	Samgurali

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dinamo Batumi	29	15	8	6	50	37	53
2	FC Rustavi	29	15	7	7	36	24	52
3	Dinamo Tbilisi	29	14	9	6	48	32	51
4	FC Iberia 1999	28	15	4	9	40	31	49
5	Dila Gori	28	12	4	12	39	33	40
6	Samgurali	29	11	5	13	43	52	38
7	Torpedo Kutaisi	29	9	10	10	46	38	37
8	FC Gagra	29	6	11	12	26	43	29
9	FC Spaeri	29	5	11	13	38	49	26
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	29	2	11	16	21	48	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Samgurali	Meshakhte Tkibuli
FC Gagra	3-0 W	1-1 D
Dinamo Tbilisi	2-3 L	0-0 D
Torpedo Kutaisi	2-3 L	2-0 W
Dila Gori	1-3 L	1-3 L
FC Iberia 1999	1-2 L	1-2 L
FC Rustavi	1-1 D	0-1 L
FC Spaeri	4-3 W	2-2 D
Dinamo Batumi	0-4 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	1 W 3 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Samgurali

DWLWDLLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	3-0	2	1	W
19/09	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-2	2-3	4	5	L
14/09	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	2-3	8	3	L
09/09	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
05/09	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
30/08	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
22/08	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-3	4-3	1	4	W
16/08	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-3	0-4	1	4	L
09/08	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
24/06	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	7	8	D

Meshakhte Tkibuli

LLLLWDDLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	1-2	2	6	L
19/09	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
14/09	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-1	2	2	L
10/09	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
05/09	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-1	2-2	3	3	D
31/08	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
21/08	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
16/08	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	1-3	3	5	L
09/08	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
23/06	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-2	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Samgurali vs Meshakhte Tkibuli?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Samgurali win (57%). Probabilities: Samgurali 57%, draw 24%, Meshakhte Tkibuli 18%.

How many goals are expected in Samgurali vs Meshakhte Tkibuli?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Samgurali 1.77 · Meshakhte Tkibuli 0.9), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Samgurali vs Meshakhte Tkibuli?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.