Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 05/10, 19:00

Prediction: Lyn 1896 II vs Rade IL

Team pages: Lyn 1896 II · Rade IL

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.45Total

Lyn 1896 II2.4

Rade IL2.05

1X2

46% 21% 33%

Lyn 1896 II Draw Rade IL

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Lyn 1896 II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWLLDL

Rade IL 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLWWDL

Head-to-head

Lyn 1896 II 1–0 Rade IL (1 last)

Rade IL3-5Lyn 1896 II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lyn 1896 II 1497 · Rade IL 1504

	Lyn 1896 II	Draw	Rade IL
Our model	46%	20%	33%
Market	46%	21%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 4.45 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lyn 1896 II	Rade IL
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 2.5	2.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.2 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 2.8	1.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X4.33

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.90

Under 4.251.90

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 5.05

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 13:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 1.95▼	Bet365 1.95
X	4.60 → 4.33▼	Pinn 5.21 ★
2	1.61 → 2.70▲	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:07 +18’	3.60	4.60	1.61
07:01 +3’	3.10▼	4.50▼	1.75▲
10:00 +5’	2.80▼	4.33▼	1.90▲
10:58 +5’	2.55▼	4.33	2.05▲
12:00 +4’	2.45▼	4.33	2.10▲
12:58 +4’	1.95▼	4.33	2.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:12 +51’	2.67	4.54	1.88
09:48 +18’	2.34▼	4.52▼	2.10▲
11:47 +17’	2.11▼	4.66▲	2.30▲
12:47 +14’	1.87▼	4.74▲	2.63▲
13:11 +54’	1.97▲	4.65▼	2.48▼
18:10 +1’	1.82▼	5.21▲	2.69▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 4.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lyn 1896 II 1–0–0 Rade IL

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Rade IL	3-5 HT 1-2	Lyn 1896 II

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lillehammer	22	17	2	3	83	32	53
2	Elverum	22	14	2	6	61	36	44
3	Rade IL	21	12	3	6	70	40	39
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	22	12	2	8	36	20	38
5	Drøbak/Frogn	22	10	5	7	50	31	35
6	Ørn Horten	22	10	5	7	44	35	35
7	Sandefjord 2	22	10	3	9	54	46	33
8	Oppsal	22	10	3	9	39	35	33
9	Rælingen	22	9	4	9	39	54	31
10	Lyn 1896 II	21	9	3	9	47	47	30
11	Sarpsborg 2	22	8	4	10	50	53	28
12	Fram	22	6	5	11	39	49	23
13	Brumunddal	22	3	3	16	25	88	12
14	Bjørkelangen	22	1	0	21	16	87	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lyn 1896 II	Rade IL
Rælingen	0-1 L	1-1 D
Sarpsborg 2	2-2 D	2-3 L
Gjøvik-Lyn	0-2 L	2-0 W
Drøbak/Frogn	1-4 L	3-2 W
Lillehammer	1-4 L	1-5 L
Fram	4-3 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lyn 1896 II

WDWWLWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	0-1	8	4	L
21/09	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	2-2	2	4	D
12/09	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
07/09	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	1-4	1	4	L
31/08	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	3-2	4-3	1	4	W
17/08	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-3	1-4	2	2	L
10/08	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-3	4-3	3	4	W
03/08	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	3-1	9-1	–	–	W
27/07	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	2-2	2	4	D
28/06	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	5-3	3	4	W

Rade IL

LWWDWLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	1-5	–	–	L
19/09	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	4-2	3	2	W
05/09	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	2-0	5	2	W
31/08	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-3	2-3	6	4	L
15/08	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	3-2	–	–	W
09/08	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
01/08	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	5-1	8-1	2	1	W
25/07	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	3-0	2	4	W
28/06	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	3-5	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lyn 1896 II vs Rade IL?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lyn 1896 II win (46%). Probabilities: Lyn 1896 II 46%, draw 21%, Rade IL 33%.

How many goals are expected in Lyn 1896 II vs Rade IL?

The model expects 4.45 goals (Lyn 1896 II 2.4 · Rade IL 2.05), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lyn 1896 II vs Rade IL?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.