Football · Norway Division 3 Group 2 · 26/09, 14:00

Prediction: Byåsen vs Orkla

Team pages: Byåsen · Orkla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.66Total

Byåsen3.17

Orkla1.49

1X2

70% 16% 14%

Byåsen Draw Orkla

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Byåsen 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDLDWLWW

Orkla 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLDWDD

Head-to-head

Byåsen 3–3–0 Orkla (6 last)

Orkla3-3Byåsen
Orkla0-3Byåsen
Byåsen2-2Orkla
Byåsen2-2Orkla
Orkla0-6Byåsen
Orkla1-4Byåsen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Byåsen 1533 · Orkla 1456

	Byåsen	Draw	Orkla
Our model	70%	15%	14%
Market	70%	16%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 4.66 goals · Bet365 line 4.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 84%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Byåsen (rating 1533 vs 1456).
H2H favours Byåsen: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Byåsen	Orkla
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 2	2.3 / 3.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.3	2.2 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.4	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.50

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.95

2 (+2)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.751.95

Under 4.751.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 5.15

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 05:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.27▲	Pinn 1.30
X	6.00 → 5.50▼	Pinn 7.23 ★
2	7.50 → 6.25▼	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12.9% Pinnacle margin 13.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:55 +5’	1.22	6.00	7.50
15:15 +3’	1.25▲	6.00	7.00▼
02:38 +2’	1.33▲	5.25▼	5.50▼
05:19 +19’	1.27▼	5.50▲	6.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:15 +25’	1.30	7.23	4.47

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 4.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Byåsen 3–3–0 Orkla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Orkla	3-3 HT 1-1	Byåsen
05/10/24 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Orkla	0-3 HT 0-2	Byåsen
06/04/24 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Byåsen	2-2 HT 1-1	Orkla
29/10/23 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Byåsen	2-2 HT 1-1	Orkla
06/05/23 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Orkla	0-6 HT 0-3	Byåsen
17/09/22 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Orkla	1-4 HT 0-3	Byåsen

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Volda	20	13	4	3	52	22	43
2	Strindheim	20	12	4	4	47	30	40
3	Melhus	20	10	5	5	48	26	35
4	Byåsen	20	10	3	7	47	39	33
5	Rosenborg 2	21	9	4	8	49	36	31
6	Molde 2	20	8	5	7	55	57	29
7	Herd	20	8	4	8	45	38	28
8	Spjelkavik	20	7	4	9	38	43	25
9	Nardo	19	7	2	10	42	43	23
10	Ranheim 2	20	6	5	9	52	66	23
11	NTNUI	20	5	6	9	29	45	21
12	Kvik Trondheim	20	6	3	11	31	52	21
13	Orkla	20	5	5	10	39	55	20
14	Aalesunds FK 2	20	6	2	12	37	59	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Byåsen	Orkla
Herd	6-1 W	2-2 D
Ranheim 2	4-1 W	3-3 D
Rosenborg 2	2-1 W	1-2 L
Spjelkavik	2-3 L	2-5 L
Molde 2	6-6 D	3-5 L
Aalesunds FK 2	2-1 W	2-2 D
Melhus	3-2 W	3-8 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Byåsen (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Byåsen

WLWDLDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Herd Norway Division 3 Group 2	5-0	6-1	4	2	W
13/09	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	3-1	4-1	3	0	W
05/09	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-2	1-2	2	4	L
31/08	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
15/08	Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
01/08	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	2-3	9	3	L
25/07	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-2	6-6	–	–	D
27/06	Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	2-1	9	2	W
20/06	Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-2	2-3	2	4	L
14/06	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	3-2	3	8	W

Orkla

WLLLLLDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
12/09	Herd Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	2-2	4	7	D
05/09	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
31/08	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	3-1	3-3	4	6	D
15/08	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-2	2-5	–	–	L
08/08	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	3-5	3-8	3	3	L
03/08	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
25/07	Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-3	2-4	–	–	L
27/06	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-2	3-5	–	–	L
20/06	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	2-0	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Byåsen vs Orkla?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Byåsen win (70%). Probabilities: Byåsen 70%, draw 16%, Orkla 14%.

How many goals are expected in Byåsen vs Orkla?

The model expects 4.66 goals (Byåsen 3.17 · Orkla 1.49), with a 53% chance of under 4.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Byåsen vs Orkla?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.