Football · Norway Division 3 Group 2 · 25/09, 18:00

Prediction: Aalesunds FK 2 vs Rosenborg 2

Team pages: Aalesunds FK 2 · Rosenborg 2

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.11Total

Aalesunds FK 21.54

Rosenborg 22.57

1X2

22% 18% 60%

Aalesunds FK 2 Draw Rosenborg 2

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Aalesunds FK 2 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWLLWD

Rosenborg 2 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWDWWLLLLW

Head-to-head

Aalesunds FK 2 0–3 Rosenborg 2 (3 last)

Rosenborg 25-0Aalesunds FK 2
Rosenborg 23-1Aalesunds FK 2
Aalesunds FK 22-5Rosenborg 2

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aalesunds FK 2 1474 · Rosenborg 2 1515

	Aalesunds FK 2	Draw	Rosenborg 2
Our model	21%	20%	59%
Market	22%	17%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 4.11 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rosenborg 2 (rating 1474 vs 1515).
H2H favours Rosenborg 2: 3-0-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aalesunds FK 2	Rosenborg 2
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2.1	2.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 1.2	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 3.7	4 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.00

X5.25

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.90

Under 4.251.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 14:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00
X	4.50 → 5.25▲	Bet365 5.25
2	2.00 → 1.48▼	Pinn 1.53 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:58 +11’	2.50	4.50	2.00
12:25 +2’	2.60▲	4.50	1.95▼
13:40 +4’	2.90▲	4.75▲	1.75▼
14:47 +12’	4.00▲	5.25▲	1.48▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:51 +21’	2.98	3.94	1.86
11:34 +52’	3.05▲	3.97▲	1.83▼
13:30 +14’	3.30▲	4.06▲	1.73▼
14:51 +8’	3.96▲	4.49▲	1.53▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aalesunds FK 2 0–0–3 Rosenborg 2

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Rosenborg 2	5-0 HT 1-0	Aalesunds FK 2
15/10/25 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Rosenborg 2	3-1 HT 1-0	Aalesunds FK 2
25/05/25 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Aalesunds FK 2	2-5 HT 0-2	Rosenborg 2

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Volda	20	13	4	3	52	22	43
2	Strindheim	20	12	4	4	47	30	40
3	Melhus	20	10	5	5	48	26	35
4	Byåsen	20	10	3	7	47	39	33
5	Molde 2	20	8	5	7	55	57	29
6	Herd	20	8	4	8	45	38	28
7	Rosenborg 2	20	8	4	8	42	35	28
8	Spjelkavik	20	7	4	9	38	43	25
9	Nardo	19	7	2	10	42	43	23
10	Ranheim 2	20	6	5	9	52	66	23
11	NTNUI	20	5	6	9	29	45	21
12	Kvik Trondheim	20	6	3	11	31	52	21
13	Orkla	20	5	5	10	39	55	20
14	Aalesunds FK 2	19	6	2	11	36	52	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aalesunds FK 2	Rosenborg 2
Orkla	2-2 D	2-1 W
Spjelkavik	3-2 W	4-0 W
Molde 2	2-3 L	0-3 L
Strindheim	0-2 L	1-1 D
Byåsen	1-2 L	1-2 L
Ranheim 2	2-5 L	7-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Rosenborg 2 (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aalesunds FK 2

WLLWLWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
14/09	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	3-1	3-2	5	3	W
07/09	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	2-3	3	3	L
17/08	Kvik Trondheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	2-3	4	4	L
10/08	Herd Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
03/08	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-2	5	0	L
25/07	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	3-1	4-2	–	–	W
27/06	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	1-2	1	2	L
22/06	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-5	2-5	3	2	L
13/06	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	1-0	5	4	W

Rosenborg 2

DWDWWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-0	4-0	6	1	W
13/09	Nardo Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-2	2-5	9	1	L
06/09	Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
31/08	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	1-2	7	4	L
17/08	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-2	0-3	3	1	L
10/08	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	3-0	7-1	5	2	W
03/08	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	2-1	10	4	W
26/07	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
27/06	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	2-1	11	4	W
19/06	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aalesunds FK 2 vs Rosenborg 2?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Rosenborg 2 win (60%). Probabilities: Aalesunds FK 2 22%, draw 18%, Rosenborg 2 60%.

How many goals are expected in Aalesunds FK 2 vs Rosenborg 2?

The model expects 4.11 goals (Aalesunds FK 2 1.54 · Rosenborg 2 2.57), with a 53% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Aalesunds FK 2 vs Rosenborg 2?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.