Football · Norway Division 3 Group 2 · 08/08, 14:00
Prediction: Melhus vs Orkla
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.8Total
Melhus2.84
Orkla0.97
1X2
Melhus
Draw
Orkla
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Melhus
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Orkla
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Melhus
2–3–1
Orkla
(6 last)
- Orkla0-2Melhus
- Orkla2-8Melhus
- Melhus0-3Orkla
- Melhus2-2Orkla
- Orkla1-1Melhus
- Melhus1-1Orkla
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Melhus 1532 · Orkla 1436
| Melhus | Draw | Orkla | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 15% | 9% |
| Market | 76% | 13% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.8 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melhus (rating 1532 vs 1436).
- H2H favours Melhus: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Melhus | Orkla | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.1 | 1.8 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/0/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6 | 1.8 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Melhus 2–3–1 Orkla
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 2 | Orkla | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Melhus |
| 27/10/24 Norway Division 3 Group 4 | Orkla | 2-8 HT 1-3 | Melhus |
| 04/05/24 Norway Division 3 Group 4 | Melhus | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Orkla |
| 08/10/22 Norway Division 3 Group 5 | Melhus | 2-2 | Orkla |
| 25/06/22 Norway Division 3 Group 5 | Orkla | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Melhus |
| 02/10/21 Norway Division 3 Group 5 | Melhus | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Orkla |
Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volda | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 38 | 18 | 29 |
| 2 | Melhus | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 32 | 17 | 26 |
| 3 | Herd | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 21 | 24 |
| 4 | Strindheim | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 27 | 24 |
| 5 | Rosenborg 2 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 22 | 22 |
| 6 | Byåsen | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 34 | 20 |
| 7 | Spjelkavik | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 25 | 19 |
| 8 | Ranheim 2 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 39 | 19 |
| 9 | Kvik Trondheim | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 28 | 18 |
| 10 | Molde 2 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 37 | 45 | 16 |
| 11 | Nardo | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 33 | 14 |
| 12 | Orkla | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 34 | 14 |
| 13 | NTNUI | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 30 | 14 |
| 14 | Aalesunds FK 2 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 24 | 42 | 13 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Melhus | Orkla |
|---|---|---|
| Kvik Trondheim | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Herd | 2-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Rosenborg 2 | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Molde 2 | 3-0 W | 3-5 L |
| Spjelkavik | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Aalesunds FK 2 | 3-2 W | 2-4 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Melhus (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Melhus
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Kvik Trondheim Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 25/07 | Herd Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 25/06 | Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 19/06 | Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 14/06 | Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 14/05 | Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 09/05 | Nardo Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 03/05 | Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
Orkla
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/07 | Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-3 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-2 | 3-5 | – | – | L |
| 20/06 | Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-2 | 2-5 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | Trønder-Lyn Norway Cup |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 30/05 | Kvik Trondheim Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 22/05 | Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 14/05 | NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
2-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Herd Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-0 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Melhus vs Orkla?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Melhus win (76%). Probabilities: Melhus 76%, draw 14%, Orkla 10%.
How many goals are expected in Melhus vs Orkla?
The model expects 3.8 goals (Melhus 2.84 · Orkla 0.97), with a 53% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Melhus vs Orkla?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.