Football · Norway Division 3 Group 2 · 15/08, 15:00

Prediction: Nardo vs Melhus

Team pages: Nardo · Melhus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.65Total

Nardo1.42

Melhus2.23

1X2

24% 21% 55%

Nardo Draw Melhus

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Nardo 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWLLWL

Melhus 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWLDLWDW

Head-to-head

Nardo 4–1–1 Melhus (6 last)

Melhus2-2Nardo
Melhus1-0Nardo
Nardo2-0Melhus
Melhus0-2Nardo
Nardo4-1Melhus
Nardo2-0Melhus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nardo 1450 · Melhus 1532

	Nardo	Draw	Melhus
Our model	23%	22%	55%
Market	24%	20%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melhus (rating 1450 vs 1532).
H2H favours Nardo: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nardo	Melhus
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.7	2.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3	2.7 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.70

X4.50

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:17 +9’	3.70	4.50	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nardo 4–1–1 Melhus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Melhus	2-2 HT 2-1	Nardo
09/08/25 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Melhus	1-0 HT 0-0	Nardo
15/06/25 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Nardo	2-0 HT 1-0	Melhus
10/08/24 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Melhus	0-2 HT 0-0	Nardo
15/06/24 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Nardo	4-1 HT 2-0	Melhus
17/09/22 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Nardo	2-0 HT 0-0	Melhus

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Volda	15	10	2	3	40	18	32
2	Melhus	15	8	5	2	40	20	29
3	Strindheim	15	8	3	4	37	27	27
4	Rosenborg 2	15	7	4	4	34	23	25
5	Herd	15	7	3	5	31	24	24
6	Byåsen	15	6	3	6	31	34	21
7	Spjelkavik	15	5	4	6	26	29	19
8	Molde 2	15	5	4	6	43	48	19
9	Ranheim 2	15	5	4	6	40	46	19
10	Kvik Trondheim	15	5	3	7	28	34	18
11	Aalesunds FK 2	15	5	1	9	27	42	16
12	NTNUI	15	3	6	6	20	30	15
13	Nardo	15	4	2	9	28	35	14
14	Orkla	15	4	2	9	27	42	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nardo	Melhus
Molde 2	3-0 W	3-0 W
Spjelkavik	2-4 L	0-0 D
Herd	1-4 L	2-0 W
Rosenborg 2	1-1 D	1-1 D
Strindheim	1-4 L	1-2 L
Byåsen	2-4 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Melhus (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Nardo

LLDLLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
03/08	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
25/07	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	2-4	–	–	L
27/06	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	3-2	3-5	–	–	L
20/06	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	2-0	1	3	W
13/06	Herd Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	1-4	4	5	L
06/06	Tynset Norway Cup	0-1	1-3	2	2	L
30/05	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
25/05	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-2	1-4	3	2	L
14/05	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-3	2-4	4	5	L

Melhus

DDWWLDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	5-3	8-3	3	3	W
03/08	Kvik Trondheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
25/07	Herd Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
25/06	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	1-2	11	1	L
19/06	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
14/06	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	2-3	5	8	L
30/05	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
22/05	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
14/05	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
09/05	Nardo Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nardo vs Melhus?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Melhus win (55%). Probabilities: Nardo 24%, draw 21%, Melhus 55%.

How many goals are expected in Nardo vs Melhus?

The model expects 3.65 goals (Nardo 1.42 · Melhus 2.23), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Nardo vs Melhus?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.