Football · Norway Division 3 Group 2 · 31/08, 18:00

Prediction: Spjelkavik vs Molde 2

Team pages: Spjelkavik · Molde 2

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.53Total

Spjelkavik2.89

Molde 21.64

1X2

63% 17% 20%

Spjelkavik Draw Molde 2

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Spjelkavik 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Molde 2 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Spjelkavik 4–1–1 Molde 2 (6 last)

Molde 23-1Spjelkavik
Spjelkavik6-1Molde 2
Molde 20-5Spjelkavik
Spjelkavik2-2Molde 2
Molde 20-4Spjelkavik
Spjelkavik5-1Molde 2

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spjelkavik 1504 · Molde 2 1508

	Spjelkavik	Draw	Molde 2
Our model	63%	18%	20%
Market	63%	17%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 4.53 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Spjelkavik: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spjelkavik	Molde 2
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.9	3.1 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	1.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 7	0.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.42

X5.25

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.98

Under 4.51.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 4.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:01 +5’	1.42	5.25	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Spjelkavik 4–1–1 Molde 2

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Molde 2	3-1 HT 2-1	Spjelkavik
06/09/25 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Spjelkavik	6-1 HT 4-0	Molde 2
13/06/25 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Molde 2	0-5 HT 0-1	Spjelkavik
18/08/24 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Spjelkavik	2-2 HT 0-1	Molde 2
06/05/24 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Molde 2	0-4 HT 0-1	Spjelkavik
30/09/23 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Spjelkavik	5-1 HT 0-0	Molde 2

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Volda	16	10	3	3	40	18	33
2	Melhus	16	9	5	2	43	21	32
3	Strindheim	16	9	3	4	41	27	30
4	Herd	16	8	3	5	40	24	27
5	Rosenborg 2	16	7	4	5	34	26	25
6	Spjelkavik	16	6	4	6	31	31	22
7	Molde 2	16	6	4	6	46	48	22
8	Byåsen	16	6	4	6	31	34	22
9	Kvik Trondheim	16	6	3	7	31	36	21
10	Ranheim 2	16	5	4	7	40	55	19
11	Aalesunds FK 2	16	5	1	10	29	45	16
12	NTNUI	16	3	6	7	20	34	15
13	Nardo	16	4	2	10	29	38	14
14	Orkla	16	4	2	10	29	47	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spjelkavik	Molde 2
Orkla	5-2 W	5-3 W
Strindheim	0-4 L	2-4 L
Byåsen	3-2 W	6-6 D
Nardo	4-2 W	0-3 L
Rosenborg 2	1-2 L	3-0 W
Melhus	0-0 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Spjelkavik (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Spjelkavik

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-2	5-2	–	–	W
08/08	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
01/08	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	3-2	7	3	W
25/07	Nardo Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	4-2	–	–	W
27/06	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	1-2	1	4	L
20/06	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-2	15	3	L
13/06	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	4-2	–	–	W
30/05	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	3-0	4-0	6	2	W
22/05	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-2	1-3	6	5	L
14/05	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Molde 2

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-0	3-0	3	1	W
09/08	Kvik Trondheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	3-1	6-3	–	–	W
03/08	Nardo Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
25/07	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-0	6-6	–	–	D
27/06	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	5-3	–	–	W
21/06	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-2	2-4	–	–	L
13/06	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-4	0-4	2	4	L
30/05	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
22/05	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
14/05	Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-0	6-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spjelkavik vs Molde 2?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Spjelkavik win (63%). Probabilities: Spjelkavik 63%, draw 17%, Molde 2 20%.

How many goals are expected in Spjelkavik vs Molde 2?

The model expects 4.53 goals (Spjelkavik 2.89 · Molde 2 1.64), with a 52% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Spjelkavik vs Molde 2?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.